WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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We’ve had a long run of pretty crappy decembers. 2013 was the last one with solid snowfall I think. 2017 was ok and 2020 had a nice event, but been a pretty dry stretch since 2013.
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Digital blue on all 3 major globals today. Finally starting to get in range where threats and storm windows are appearing and things seem to be roughly in the pattern that’s been well covered already. One thing to keep in mind that’s not just weenie hopium: when you have extreme blocking, we can and often will get southward/colder adjustments in the medium range rather than the more typical northward/warm adjustment. Buckle up, we could be busy.
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12z GGEM making me look like a GD genius lol
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One thing to watch with todays runs: the storm around the 7th that was looking like it would usher in the pattern seems to be breaking up into different shortwaves vs phasing into a strong cutter. What we’d like is for the northern stream to drag in the cold air and then let something scoot along to our south.
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Ha. I’m traveling that week also. Mentally calculating how much it would cost me in a one way rental car to get home for our KU if my flight gets cancelled
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^that looks a lot like the 12z GGEM and euro
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This seems to be the big mystery with a lot of fans screaming for him to play
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Fantastic thread here on ensemble clusters for the upcoming pattern
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It’s early, but I think they should have the expectation of at least quarterfinals if not semis in 2026.
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Yes, yes it is
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The -NAO starts building at D5. That’s not fantasy land.
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Wooooo baby
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LOWER abdomen
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I hate having to follow this on bbc live blog instead of watching
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12z euro similar but farther south than GGEM so no snow.
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12z Op GFS was the toaster bath scenario but 12z GEFS looks solid. Very similar to 0z EPS.
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12z GGEM shows this @CAPE scenario for Dec 9 with a modest VA hit.
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The general way I see things is this, with the progression shown like the 0z eps and most recent ensemble forecasts. Pattern changing cold front: Dec 7 Clipper or southern slider pattern: Dec 8-12 EC storm pattern: after Dec 13
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This was my thought when I responded to @brooklynwx99 yesterday when he was saying it looks like a big dog pattern. It does! But there are like zero big dog events in our area before mid-December (and few in December total) for a reason. So we need to scale our expectations accordingly and recognize that our path to victory is not the same as for our “friends” to the north.
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Excess stratospheric water vapor warms the surface through the normal greenhouse effect, but it cools the stratosphere itself through that IR emission. You’re already seeing this in the southern hemisphere with a very cold stratosphere. That’s why, from a weather weenie POV it could be bad for snow chances as it would tend to reinforce a cold stable strat wintertime PV.
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That sucks @mappy. Hope it clears quickly!
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I had to google “phwoar”
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I think so yes. Not sure how much the chemical composition of the magma may have also played a role.
