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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    I’ve been trying to tell ya’ll
  2. WxUSAF
    NYC sub is comparing this somewhat to “Juno”, the late January 2015 Miller B that famously screwed them at the last second. I got 2.3” from that.
  3. WxUSAF
    Recall that happened with extreme perfect blocking. Slight difference from Friday.
  4. WxUSAF
    If this storm happens, THE ONLY way Boston and NYC don't totally crush us in terms of snowfall is if this thing is so wrapped up and west that it runs inland and they rain. Philly-NYC-Bos are all but CERTAINLY going to get more snow than us from this thing. Accept it, deal with it, move on. Again, thank jesusallahbuddah that we're getting ANYTHING from a La Nina unblocked Miller aBcdeFU.
  5. WxUSAF
  6. WxUSAF
    I want to talk about that gorgeous overrunning event GFS has at hr336.
  7. WxUSAF
  8. WxUSAF
    Much like our northern stream shortwave?
  9. WxUSAF
    Disclaimer: me starting this thread doesn't mean I think It's Happening. Ron Paul is asleep in his basement.
  10. WxUSAF
    You Randy @stormtracker, where's our new thread? May I suggest that your recent track record...sucks?...so maybe have someone else start it?
  11. WxUSAF
    Agreed. We'll call this one "Miller DC-usually-screwed".
  12. WxUSAF
    The most basic A/B discriminator is classically: A: gulf low that moves up the coast B: OH/TN valley low that hops to the coast and moves NEward I think maybe a better discriminator is: A: southern stream dominant. Northern stream often phases in. B: northern stream dominant. Sometimes no southern stream involvement at all. The precip pattern shown on the globals is 100% CLASSIC Miller B for this weekend. It's clearly northern stream dominant, although there is some southern stream involvement.
  13. WxUSAF
    Ha, we say a ridge axis over Boise is ideal. Couple more runs and we might have an omega block over Boise.
  14. WxUSAF
    It doesn't really give us snow from the coastal. That's all from the northern stream trough. So that being stronger on the 12z euro vs. 0z gives us a nice advisory level event. So keep that strong/getting stronger and we can hopefully set a floor for SOME snow. I will say...a Friday happy hour snowfall timing would be quite acceptable to me.
  15. WxUSAF
    Absolutely. As @Bob Chill mentioned and I was discussing yesterday, the northern stream trough swinging through and providing some broad lift may be enough to set a "floor" for this event of something marginally shovelable. But I wouldn't trust this scenario giving us a major (high end advisory/low end warning level?) snow until I'm measuring it on my snowboard.
  16. WxUSAF
    It maybe has some hybrid aspect because of the southern stream involvement. But I think it leans more toward the Miller B side than Miller A because the surface low really only develops offshore once the 500mb energy arrives.
  17. WxUSAF
    Exactly. HAVE to have reasonable wiggle room on like Thursday's 12z runs if not later. I'm as encouraged as anyone that there's been a big west shift on the progs and it looks like we're in the game. But damn, "La Nina unblocked Miller B" is just a freaking giant klaxon alarm to keep expectations at "partly cloudy".
  18. WxUSAF
    Nice to see many with significant snow to our south. I'll just say...southwest edge of a Miller B's snowfall prediction = major yikes.
  19. WxUSAF
    Don't they know 1045am-2pm each winter day is "lunch" time!?!
  20. WxUSAF
    If the metro corridor gets ANY snow from an unblocked La Nina Miller B storm, we get down on our knees and say "Thank you Jesus may I have another!"
  21. WxUSAF
    NCEP email to ECMWF
  22. WxUSAF
    If the Bills had won last night I think they were clear SB favorites. So bummed.
  23. WxUSAF
    Ugh so disappointing. Josh Allen won that game twice and his defense couldn’t hold.
  24. WxUSAF
    Jesus this game
  25. WxUSAF
    We need Patreon for Amwx mods
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