WxUSAF

Maybe I’m being a weenie, but I feel like that “should” follow the standard N/NW adjustments as we move toward game time more than the surface low in this case.

We certainly have some boom/bust potential (don’t we always?), but I think the goalposts are fairly narrow. Bust = dusting, Boom (west of Bay) = 6-8”. Now look at NYC!! 2’+ on the euro or dusting -2” on the GFS. Yikes.

A few thoughts this morning: 1. Even with some better model runs, the coastal gets marginal additional precip west of the bay. Maybe that changes but I’m skeptical. @CAPE and everyone on Delmarva are still very much in the game for that. 2. For the metro corridor and NW areas, we are in the game for the Friday evening precipitation that’s aligned with some deep upper air lift and the arctic air boundary sinking south. GFS has been pushing this farther south each run but Euro and GGEM have pretty consistently put it through NoVA and MD. Should have good dendrite formation in this. Encouragingly two very well respected Mets (Pete Mullinax from WPC and HM) have both said that there’s some good upside potential with this feature. 3. Then we have the ULL passage overnight into Saturday morning. The stronger and earlier the 500mb low closes off the better. It provides lift as it goes by to our south and serves to pull moisture off the ocean and wring it out over the area. Again, GFS is currently farther south with this (over central VA), euro farther north near the metro corridor and GGEM sort of in between. Again good dendrite production with this and some possible upside potential if that 500mb low can close off and make a good pass south of us. So, if one area can hit on both of those features and they both juice up a bit, I could see a somewhat coherent region of 4-8” west of the Bay and west of the consolidated coastal-driven precip swath. I think either feature alone can provide 1-3”/2-4” and hopefully nobody gets skunked.

DT is secsy

Agreed. The presentation has changed in several ways. As shown on the euro, I think most of the snow we’re (metro corridor) getting is not from coastal per se but from that gorgeous ULL. Seems GFS has that through northern NC and into VA. Euro is more over the metro area. Encouraging developments, but still 72 hours to go so more changes to come.

Then that’s a major victory after that 12z run. Need 11 more noise runs until it starts snowing.

WTOP radio just said “cold rain moves in on Friday” and I may have impulsively yelled “F*** You!!” in my car.

lol NAM

I mean, you all know I'm as much of a snow weenie as anyone on here. But from the get go, outside of a couple runs last week where it looked like maybe a true Gulf low coming north, this has just huge flashing BUST written all over it. I think there's a good chance we get SOME snow Friday evening. Eastern Shore and Delaware folks have a good shot at a warning level event. But those of us west of the Bay? Or in NoVA and the mountains? Pssshhhh...good luck. Hope I'm wrong but I'm not counting on it until Sunday morning.

We will be PHENOMENALLY lucky to get 6”+ from this IMO. No way in hell we’re getting some 24”+ deform band nonsense. Congrats Chowdaheads.

CntrTim gets to be moderator if I get 9” from this thing like the Kuchera map shows

Closed 500mb over NC is pretty f-cking hot

@psuhoffman that shows our dilemma so well. Outside of a few random ensemble members, I haven't seen any models have a track on or very near OCMD like you show is probably necessary. Maybe this one is the grand exception, but I'm not holding my breath on that.

This is more how I envision Friday's runs going

Agree. Save the step backs for Friday 12z.

Encouraging to see that whether GFS does a good phase that gets us a bit into the coastal game or not, it still provides a very nice event Friday evening. Friday HH snowfall looking more and more likely.

Time to restart that “destroy the Apps” project we’ve been working on?

Ok maybe I missed a post or two. JWST will image Jupiter but I think only one of the instruments can because it’s so bright.

The thermal infrared emission from the nightside Earth and the reflected light from the Moon is still WAY too much interference for JWST. Have to block all that out. The one instrument (MIRI I believe) needs to be operating at only ~6-7 degrees above absolute zero. There are spacecraft pictures from Jupiter from Galileo, Voyager 1 and 2, New Horizons, Cassini, and Pioneer. Juno is just the most recent and also has some of the closest images to the cloud tops.

That light you see is just an oncoming train!!!!!

18z gfs vs euro definitely had a familiar feeling to many of the storms this month where the GFS seems to be “seeing” something 1-2 model cycles before the euro and then the euro plays catch up. But then the GFS is walking back some of those changes with 0z and 6z. Will be interesting to see how it plays out today.

It’s a good point. Lol I’m also kinda worried somehow the coastal development would screw up that upper trough snow and leave us skunked in two ways. 72hrs to go…

I know you all are big game hunting, but the last 3 GFS runs looks quite fine to me for MBY. Solid 2-4” with the northern stream trough and falling during Friday HH. That said, I’d certainly say oui/ja/si to the 0z euro.

That’s a fabulous thing.