WxUSAF

If snow is always beginning…snow can never end????

Most encouraging sign I’ve seen at 12z for those of us west of the Bay is that the snow tomorrow has returned and is maybe juicing up a bit. Feeling good at accumulation for most everyone in the subforum. General 1-3” seems like the right call for the metro corridor but there’s certainly scenarios (banding and some ratios) where I think there could be a couple lollipops with 4” or a bit more.

Just checking in to say I’m all in on the Leaking Gut storm next weekend.

Dude, I’m all the f*ck IN. All I’ve wanted this whole week is some minor accumulations and great Friday HH mood setting. 12z runs all seem supportive of that.

Squinting at black and white GGEM maps. Looks pretty similar to 0z? Maybe slightly sharper western precip gradient, but hard to be sure. Probably still way more of a hit than GFS.

Saturday 12z hrrrr should have a good handle on the storm

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The NAMs would save Friday happy hour. Pleaseberightpleaseberightforgodssakepleaseberightforonce

HM was mentioning again this morning the possibility for the moisture convergence to generate an area of precipitation tomorrow earlier than expected and lo and behold it shows up on the Nams.

Low of 12.7

Wow, what an overnight change. I truly have no idea what is going to happen here lol. Don’t think any modeling system is going to cover itself in glory for this storm, but it is a unusually sensitive set up as many of us have been saying for a week. A few observations from the guidance in the vein of my comments yesterday morning: 1. The “PRE” event is still on the table but it also appears quite sensitive to where the storm tracks. Look at the differences in how juicy that swath of precipitation is on the GGEM/RGEM vs the GFS and Euro. In hindsight, that makes some sense. Closer low to the coast, the better moisture transport toward us that that boundary can wring out. I still think a banding structure within that could surprise someone relative to whatever expectations we have 36 hours from now. 2. Unfortunately for us in the metro corridor, I haven’t seen any sign that ULL precipitation swath is moving north toward us on the guidance. If there’s a region that has an overlap between the ULL and the arctic front, it’s more likely to be within a ROA-CHO-EZF-RIC polygon. And if there is an overlap there, that probably means DC-Baltimore is largely skunked. 3. Obviously the metro corridor still has some prayer of being on the edge of precip from the coastal. I still have little hope for that, but may have to put our eggs in that basket? With how rapidly this forecast has flip flopped in the last 72 hours, more changes certainly to come!

Can you notice any difference in how it handles this energy over FL that HM identified?

It’s different but I’ve heard people mention it on Twitter. Nice that they also think there’s upside potential similar to what Pete Mullinax and HM have said. That and the ULL are what I’m watching.

It’s happened for like 5 different storms this month, but it’s still remarkable to me how the GFS is just kicking the euro’s ass all over the field this month. At least in terms of forecasting the broad evolution of major storm systems. Euro still has “won” at short leads with some details like precip amounts.

Euro also has snow from the ULL over central and western NC and southwest VA. Maybe we can get that north over the next 72 hours. Think that’s much more plausible than this coastal coming west enough to deform us.

I don’t see how it hurts.

It’s still closed off at 500mb at 72hrs over western NC.

Philly, like NYC, is much more dependent on the coastal. It’s more all or nothing for them, while we hopefully have a couple consolation offers at play. Although probably Philly area gets in on the Friday evening fluff.

It’s been the least consistent on this by far. But yeah, it’s rough.

So to speak on the second piece of energy that could extend/enhance our snow: the ULL pass. Look on Pivotal at the GFS 3hr precipitation over the Mid-Atlantic from hour 57-69. Watch an area of precipitation start near the Blue Ridge near Roanoke and the NC mountains and then it expands and moves east toward RIC. IF that happens farther north, and we get in on that AND the arctic front, we could get warning level snows west of the Bay.

The final position isn’t set. This run stopped the GFS trend to push that south and wobbled it back north. I was glad to see that. Sounding at 0z also looks a bit better than I’d seen earlier on the GFS. Stronger lift in the DGZ.

Yup. This is still my primary focus for MBY. If I had any hope for coastal love, this run ain’t what I’d want.

Ok, GFS about to role. Take all the jokes to banter.

I need to remember to move my snowboard to the eastern most point in my yard.

It’s kinda hilarious that our region seems to have relatively narrow goal posts on snow potential whereas areas both north and south of us have just enormous variance. NAM and GFS give eastern NC and southeast VA a MECS and Euro gives them a dusting.