WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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The last few cycles have left that shortwave up in the Yukon, which is cutting off our PNA ridge. Not sure entirely what that entails for us or what we’d want… taller PNA ridge would help our storm dig farther south.
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It was *this* close to producing a massive Miller B early on the 24th.
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We get a dusting! No taint!
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Hopefully if the 23rd fails, by the time we know that we'll be already busy tracking something for after the holiday
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An all coastal storm scenario looks pretty unlikely at this moment, but I'd also lean against a pure cutter. So I think some sort of redeveloper scenario like the Op runs today portray makes the most sense. But there's a pretty huge range of options in there in terms of sensible outcomes for us. Good news is that I think we get *some* snow in most of those redeveloper scenarios, but that could range from a dusting-2" with the arctic front to a MECS/HECS.
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You're correct. If this sort of redeveloper scenario ends up happening, it all depends on where the energy transfer occurs and how strong the Lakes low will be as that's happening. If you look closely, GGEM and Euro have a little snow from the coastal at the start today, then quick change to rain, then snow with the arctic front. Very complicated and lots of subtle details. For now, we want the strong shortwave to enter the Plains farther east and dig farther south.
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That single person who lives in San Diego and likes winter will be disappointed
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Massive improvements on the euro vs last 2 runs. Couple more similar shifts and we're in business
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Trough near Hawaii and that Aleutian low are very Nino-like and should keep things pretty active.
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Low of 21 at BWI. Solid.
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0z GFS is not the 12z GGEM precisely, but it’s the upper end advisory/low end warning version. All snow, no taint.
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Much more of a coastal-dominant lean on the 18z GEFS vs 12z
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That event had an unexpected mesoscale low form along the front which produced that boom in snow totals. I think what the gfs just spit out would be way more dynamic synoptically.
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That’s wild. And that snow along the arctic front on the GFS is “real” and not an illusion like sometimes happens on the backside of storms on certain plots.
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This is some useful info from the EPS I found on Twitter just now. Here’s the MSLP anomaly next Friday. And this shows MEDIAN temp departure at the same time. Median avoids outliers, which in this case would be the Op on the warm end and perhaps earlier passing storms on the cold side. Temps in the teens…
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@psuhoffman, maybe a lot again comes back to what people mean for “cash in.” I know some are HECS or bust. I’m not and maybe that’s my befuddlement. I’ve said a few times that something like 3” for DCA and ~6” for IAD and BWI would be wins in my book for December. That’s like 200% of normal! And if that comes via a front end thump that eventually mixes or changes over and then is followed by arctic air…bring it on I say.
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^That 987mb off Wallops Island would be acceptable I think.
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Looks disastrous. Better pack it up and maybe we get lucky in March before spring arrives for good.
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As I said earlier, the Op runs have been wanting to phase in the PV and make it dig deep in the Rockies over the last day or two. Not sure why, but the ensemble means want nothing to do with that. If that dichotomy continues through ~Sunday, then I'll start to get mildly concerned.
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Close the shades?? This is "close the shades"?? I mean, are we only hunting for HECS here? That ^^ is like a 9/10 look for snow chances for us. The VAST majority of our snow falls in a long wave pattern that is not a 10/10. If we can only deal with 10/10 or we only get snow in 10/10 patterns, then it's time to move north or quit this hobby.
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Nice post @brooklynwx99! Having the ridge along the west coast vs slightly inland would normally favor a coastal runner or inland track. But the Atlantic side, with the PV well west of the canonical 50-50 location will fight against that. Long way out still, but with a very good airmass in place, I’d favor at least SOME frozen for everyone. Best chance at a white Christmas since 2010 without a doubt.
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Yup. For whatever reason, the last 24-36 hours of Op runs have often wanted to phase in the PV to this event. Ensembles want nothing of the sort.
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When it comes to arctic PVs phasing into giant storms, the Canadians should obviously be better equipped to model that
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Dude's 87 years old, you can't just make him dance for nothing!
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I'm skeptical of that much sleet for areas south of @mappy/ @psuhoffman / @HighStakes, etc. But we'll see. If my kids can slant stick 0.1" of sleet accumulation I will take it! There's not going to be any snow for our subforum's region outside of maybe the northern part of the Blue Ridge area or eastern WV/Garrett County MD.
