WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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@AtlanticWx and @DarkSharkWX, appreciate your contributions as new members
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I remember a few, but nowhere near your recall. I remember the end of Feb 2010 and the start of Feb 2015 smoking New England. A few others that looked good from range and turned into nothing (early January 2018).
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@psuhoffman your photographic memory of our failures never ceases to amaze me lol
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GFS is clearly locked in. Sharpen the shovels. Let’s gooooooooo
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IIRC, that year we had the -EPO rocking, but also a super ++NAO much of the time as long as the pERleR VerTeX didn’t pay us a visit. So that could give us more space for storms to slow down.
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Euro looks pretty ripe to me post D6. Didn’t come together, but active pattern with cold air.
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Mountains are going to cash in with upslope the next 10+ days in almost every scenario
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I would pay grotesque amounts of money for the GFS to be right.
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As you know, the rule of thumb is once the surface low is north of our latitude, the precipitation shuts off in these situations. What could keep it going is lift generated by the 500mb low, which euro does seem to show.
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Miller B wraparound! Always a winner for us
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This. Things look ripe after this big storm passes. Plenty of cold air and continuing energy moving into the southwest. Very Nino-like. Just a matter of how things time up and where they are located.
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To somehow stay majority frozen for us we want that coastal capture by upper level energy as far south and east as we can get it. That capture will yank the low NW like the GFS shows. Combine a Midwest primary with a warm ocean and it’s really hard to keep the column below freezing.
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Kaiser says NEIN although probably some eis if I can interpret from TT charts. Dat storm after the storm tho…
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Of course if somehow those gaudy snow totals DO shift south, can I rent a car and drive home…
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But Harrisburg is getting 24”!! If the storm tucks a little more or closes off 13mi farther south, it could be us!!
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Next week has “tragedy for many” written all over it lol. People should be setting hopes at “first flakes” or “first small accumulation” and not imagine some gaudy inland PA/NY snow totals shifted south 150 miles. But I know that’s not how we roll. I am getting increasingly concerned about flying home next Thursday evening…
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I’m still looking beyond next week’s weird ass thing. I see you EPS.
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It’s a needle threader though to get JUST enough ULL strength in the Plains and JUST enough spacing with the 50-50 so the coastal can turn the corner but stay offshore. But that’s the 6z solution I guess so it’s possible. Just hard.
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Strangest MECS in history or this is a BUsT!1!!11!!1
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Life comes at ya fast in mid-Atlantic La Niña winters
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Miller notgonnaBsnowinginthemidatlantic
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Ha. I was thinking that if there weren’t some NSFW worthy EPS members today than they need to unplug ECMWF and plug it back in.
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Yes true. Big jump south and weaker with the ULL. Just nowhere near as dramatic as GFS.
