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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    I think there's still a little window early next week (Mon-Tues) and today's Euro sort of hints at that. Issue for that seems to be the shortwaves just shear out as they move east and our airmass is getting pretty rotted by then. But after that, I think it's a snooze fest until at least next weekend. But Euro and GFS both today have a somewhat similar evolution D8-10 (Euro is a little slower) with the TPV moving through the Canadian Prairies and into Ontario/Quebec and that looks like it will start establishing a cold and hopefully stormy pattern.
  2. WxUSAF
  3. WxUSAF
    So what @MillvilleWx is saying is that my kids are going to have another rain day that might end with some glaze on trees and patio tables. They'll be happy to hear it!
  4. WxUSAF
    So far, each 12z run has moved the cold air in faster than their respective 0z/6z runs. But GFS is still the coldest by quite a bit.
  5. WxUSAF
    'grats!!
  6. WxUSAF
    Got a new thread now boss
  7. WxUSAF
    Op run at range, etc., blahblahblah, but this is straight pants tent
  8. WxUSAF
    Ensembles seem insistent that we do eventually get that glorious "broad bowl" gradient pattern/overrunning look that @Bob Chill keeps mentioning, but probably not until next weekend or after. EPS and GEPS are similar. No sign to me that winter is done. Plenty of cold air available with storms around.
  9. WxUSAF
    Do it
  10. WxUSAF
    Seems the meeting in the middle between the GFs and euro is going to be a Fall Line event. Fall line and north gets measurable icing and associated impacts. Another 25-50mi S/E of the Fall Line perhaps some light icing at the end plus a freeze over of surfaces.
  11. WxUSAF
    Good catch. I was looking at yesterday's 12z Euro and I realized it was actually the NORTHERN s/w that caused the storm! It sheared out the southern wave (like it does today), but dropped in the northern wave far enough to develop that weak coastal.
  12. WxUSAF
    Euro also shears out the s/w that just misses on the GFS around D7. Booooooo Euro!
  13. WxUSAF
    Need more sacrifices. I have suggestions on who.
  14. WxUSAF
    12z euro yesterday had it. Overnight euro and GGEM were just weak and slightly offshore.
  15. WxUSAF
    lol shit. 10-15" for the whole area. Pants tent.
  16. WxUSAF
    Good things happen when Arctic air is hanging around
  17. WxUSAF
    Woah baby. F this ice noise. Gimme that action.
  18. WxUSAF
    I think maybe we're seeing a little meeting in the middle here. GFS has been trending a bit stronger and norther with the second wave, which pushes the mid level temps up so it is more of a ZR event instead of ZR-sleet-snow. Probably does go to sleet for areas north of DC verbatim on this run. But I don't think this is a snow event.
  19. WxUSAF
    Per Tony Pann's tweet, the GRAF is on #TeamGFS, so we got that going on.
  20. WxUSAF
    RGEM wants absolutely nothing to do with this. Slightly warmer than 6z if anything. Maybe a couple sleet pellets for @mappy as it ends.
  21. WxUSAF
    Not exactly. The "new" GFS uses the FV3 dynamical core. A model's dynamical core is the portion of the model doing the physics of atmospheric motion. The "FV3" on TT is the mesoscale model that also uses the FV3 dynamical core.
  22. WxUSAF
    Because it's based off the previous GFS run. So it should always look a lot like the last GFS run.
  23. WxUSAF
    Yes, but I'll note that 3k at 60hrs has the front noticeably south of where 12k has it at the same time. This is the type of situation where the NAM "should" be good at understanding temp boundaries. We'll see.
  24. WxUSAF
    NAM has been stubborn with this but it's totally on an island. 6z Herpderp is mid-upper 40s for tomorrow while 3k NAM is near freezing.
  25. WxUSAF
    @MN Transplant 12z 3km NAM still has near freezing high temps for tomorrow. 6z Euro was mid-upper 40s, 6z GFS was mid 40s.
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