How else can you summarize the synoptic environment that led up to the event and describe those 2 runs of the Eta that teased us with 2-4” forecasts before the NGM schooled it at 36 hours out?
22.5 for the low. Beltsville farm fields were 22 just now as I drove through, so wouldn’t be surprised if they were in the upper 10s a couple hours ago.
Looking like we won’t be able to get a -20F day out of this arctic airmass over the weekend. -15F quite possible though. Morning lows (as is often the case) are the hold up. Daytime highs look about 20F BN.
Compare with the GGEM on TT. It shows “blue” but with basically no accumulation on the snow maps. I tried to look on Pivotal (with 3hr resolution) to see if there’s a wave that forms on the front and can explain the 1-3” on the GFS. Answer is “maybe”…isobars do look a little baggy as the front passes.
I’m not saying it will happen, but I think the TT and Pivotal snow plots are “real”. Snow behind an arctic front is pretty common with this sort of dynamics. This is the juiciest I’ve seen it though yet.