WxUSAF

Nino is looking possible if not likely. No idea about Modoki.

Ukie is great at global H5 anomalies and consistently shitty at east coast sensible weather prediction

You get Ukie post-144 hr?

H5 improved for Sunday on GFS, but not much better at the surface.

We needed this to happen overnight tonight and that would have helped a little. I’d imagine elevation and ruralness will play a role in whatever slush meteors may fall.

Oh, well in THAT case. ALL IN

Am I missing something? Are we rooting for some light rain showers?

Low of 16.7. @WeatherShak i think it does well IMBY if it’s cloudy or when the sun’s not up. Probably mounting location plays a role.

^thats what my wife got for me for Xmas! Also at Costco. Seems to do pretty well I think. Thermometer runs warm on sunny days.

Surface temps are like upper 30s?

Got a few snowflakes falling

Temp down to 33. Ice storm starting soon!!

Sleet/rain mix in Columbia. Ice storm verified!

Yeah, but very odd with all the precip on the back of the storm and almost none in the warm sector. It's almost just like a surface reflection of the strong ULL.

It's similar to yesterday's 18z. And it's really weird. Not sure even what you'd call that?

Seems like places N and/or W got a better temp drop than I did. It's dropped 15F, but over 2.5 hours. That's not particularly memorable.

Had a 6F drop over about 25 minutes. Still dropping but not as fast for the moment

Yup. Neighbor’s PWS is similar.

Pouring here. 0.8" for the storm so far. Temp drop has started.

Temp almost hit 60 at 4am. Down a little since then.

That looks ok. This would definitely be an overnight-only sort of scenario.

1 bump west and it’s rain. At least for most of us. Not sure about 18z, but 12z euro had the boundary layer torched. 850 was below freezing, but 925 and below was balmy.

Impressive advection fog. Raining and visibility is still about 1/8th mile.

I’m sure Will will say that GEFS has us at like 0.3” of snow through D15, but still looks like next weekend things become more conducive to snow chances. I’m still somewhat cautious on whether we ever get the @Bob Chill big bowl pattern over the CONUS with the strong PNA/EPO ridge just on the west coast up towards AK and the arctic. That pattern clearly has been cankicked for a more meridional flow, but the ensembles really are insistent it is coming. V-Day is probably a good marker to see if that pattern does move closer in time.

Airmass ssssuuuccckkkkksssss