WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Not loving the trajectory for HoCo right now, but we’ll see how it evolves.
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@psuhoffman has a 10 page thesis ready for posting in October
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The double problem this year is even if ENSO can get overcome by other factors, which can happen under certain circumstances, most/all of the other indicators are also in unfavorable states: PDO, QBO, solar activity, etc. Maybe Siberian snowcover will save us!?!?
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Ugh that sucks. I looked at radar and figured you were going to get lit up. About 0.5” IMBY.
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He had to make up for the TOOTBLAN and that horrid throw home.
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87F as the rain starts to fall in Columbia
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Or a good time?
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I’m intrigued. Some gorgeous structure on one of the cells to the north I can see in the distance
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+10F day so far at BWI, pending any late evening storms. Our big major cooldown this weekend will probably struggle to get a -5F day.
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In all honesty, I think this winter is probably going to be a dumpster fire. Triple dip Niña and a moderate modoki Niña to boot? Throw in increasing solar activity and unfavorable QBO and…yikes. There’s very low sample size on moderate Ninas with a westerly QBO, so I guess we can hope on that…but still. Maybe we can get one nice event that pushes us out of total disaster?
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Landover-Cheverly area getting lit up. On the very edge of it at work in Greenbelt
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2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
WxUSAF replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
I’m imagining the Alan Grant in Jurassic Park gif for when @WxWatcher007 looked at the 6z GFS -
Low-mid 40s for dew points on Saturday…omg can’t wait
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Op GFS seems most aggressive with BN temps, but broad agreement in models and ensembles for actual real-live BN conditions next Friday and Saturday.
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Raining again #blessed
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House rattling rolling thunder with nothing threatening nearby per radar
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~0.3” from todays first round
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Hrrr seems to be JUST SLIGHTLY under predicting storm activity over the mountains at this time.
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CoCoRaHS map shows NE Baltimore was the winner yesterday with a 4.36” mark. But only ~0.25-0.3” for @nw baltimore wx a few miles away. 1.12” at the gauge near me.
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#SemperVigilans
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If violence = dew points in the 40s, then I volunteer for tribute
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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
WxUSAF replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Whoa…video of a tornado yesterday on Smith Island -
Beyond the moist and damp next 4-5 days, models have been teasing a respectable FROPA late next week for a September preview. Euro seems least enthused, but has hinted at it periodically. But EPS and GEFS both show a trough swing through.
