WxUSAF
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This was a pretty massive jump from the euro so I don’t think we’ve found anything approaching the final solution. EPS will be interesting. The northern stream dropping into the trough could be really good. But we do want some southern stream involved. That affects moisture northward so we perhaps at least get that frontal snow even if we miss the coastal. Hard to lean against the seasonal/Niña trend for areas closer to the coast to be favored for the coastal.
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GFS keeps the north and southern streams more separate. Euro and GGEM mostly say the northern stream is the show with Euro somewhat of a blend between GFS and GGEM at H5 actually. The differences in their trough axes are like 100mi or so. At 102hrs they are all neutrally tilted but GFS is along the West side of MI, euro and GGEM are over Detroit.
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The northern stream comes in too far east so it acts more like a kicker than a phase. Obviously some huge variance in that strength and position between the GGEM, Euro, and GFS.
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Deeper shortwave with higher heights along the east coast relative to 0z at 60hrs.
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I expect they’ll eat into spring break
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They already got snow days to extend winter break too!
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I’ll allow it
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Really need to reel in Sunday. My sons birthday is Monday and he’s dying for a snow day. 1000 dad points for something I have no control over = win!
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Once it caught on 6 hours before start time it’s “true SLR” would have shown 4-6” storm totals.
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Good catch. And the Ukie does some weird shit and has marginal temps so it gives us some white rain. We say the Icon SUCKS (which it does), but goddamn the Ukie Sssssuuuuuccckkkkkssssssssss.
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Not over then?
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Omg it totally misses us. Ha, that’s an enormous jump.
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I’d be skeptical of Kuchera here given the look on the soundings and the experience of the last snow event that we got ahead of the big Miller abcdefu coastal. Soundings do look better on 12z vs 6z though. That northern stream energy diving south on the backside is the big wildcard here. That yanks it west. A positive change for us.
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Wow, RGEM was starting to phase in the northern stream on the west side at the end of the run. Might be worrying about rain with that lol
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Yeah, seems solid. Surface temps are borderline for DC and points south. Of course, icon’s internal SLR of 1.3:1 paints about 1-2” across the area.
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Best panels are of course missing on TT, but Icon (which SUCKS) is on team GFS/Ukie. ha, ninja’d
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SYWM
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Lol that’s impressively dismal
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Yup. Get the @Bob Chill 8-2 front orientation instead of 7-1 and if that southern wave can lag a little bit, it could be a snowy hit. Ensemble individuals have been highlighting that period for a few days.
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Gorgeous. Too bad it’s 110 hours away and probably all downhill from here
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After seeing the euro, I can see how getting that northern stream snow (a lot like the “PRE” snow event we had) requires the southern stream to at least get neutral tilted so it can advect some moisture northward. Northern stream actually looked better on the Euro vs GFS/GGEM, but its southern stream remains positively tilted and so there’s no moisture to wring out as snow.
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I tend to agree. GGEM also had 1-2” this way.
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The northern stream not digging as much gives us a consolation prize.
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Through 108 I do not think this is the GFS run we wanted. Leaving more every back in TX (seems familiar) and northern stream isn’t digging as much.
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41/32 with sprinkles and a few sleet pellets. What time does my surprise snow storm start??
