Something I noticed. Trying to figure out why our shortwave for the 22-23rd is digging so much more in the last 24hrs worth of runs. I think it’s this lead shortwave that moves through the Lakes around D4-5. It sort of merges with and pulls a piece of the 50-50 low west. This provides a lot more suppression of our shortwave and forces it well south. Compare yesterday and todays 18z GFS runs.
Not sure if it will come together, but if we didn’t have a digital HECS 48hrs before this panel, I’d be stoked. This is a canonical look. #CAPEStorm2022
We’re basically at D7 for the storm being on our door step. Long way to go but I like where we sit for now. I’d like to see us in a similar position (with wiggle room to maintain a nice event) around 0z Sunday.
Everyone should also remember that even an area wide 3-6” type event would be HIGH TIER for mid-Atlantic La Niña December’s.
Solid week? We got teased a couple times that it would get forced to our south, but think that was all like D9? I’d have to go back in the thread to be sure.
Really nice trends the last 12-24 hours. Long way to go still, but I wanted to see the shortwave dig more , and that’s exactly what we’re getting. I’d expect a few monsters in the EPS.