I find this "there hasn't been a warning level snowfall in Baltimore City since 2016" to be a wackamole sort of moving target. I get that downtown has gotten screwed by poor banding positions in a lot of events recently. But I promise you that NWS doesn't think "there hasn't been a warning level snowfall in Baltimore City" since 2016.
March 2018: each spotter report in Baltimore City is >5"
https://www.weather.gov/lwx/pnsmap?type=snow&date=20180321&option=snow
January 2019: spotter report in Baltimore City of 5"
https://www.weather.gov/lwx/pnsmap?type=snow&date=20190113&option=snow
January 3rd: spotter report of 5"
https://www.weather.gov/lwx/pnsmap?type=snow&date=20220103&option=snow
January 7th: spotter report of 5.1"
https://www.weather.gov/lwx/pnsmap?type=snow&date=20220107&option=snow
Yeah, bolstered obviously by 4 historic years in there. Median over that period is 19.5”. Both are higher than the “true” long term mean/median by some amount. I’d guess my true median is pretty close to last year and this year, 16-17”.
The ensembles really keep thinking we’ll get into a -EPO gradient pattern eventually!! Been advertising it for weeks now and perpetually been D10+ away. What I do takeaway is increasing confidence that Canada will NOT be entirely flushed with Pac air, so hopefully we can tap a solid airmass again at some point after 2/25.