WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Freeze watches and warnings surrounding the metro area on all sides, but none for central MD or the 495-adjacent counties in VA.
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Not very close today
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Looking like the -PNA pattern may be more durable, although it does seem to relax toward a more zonal pattern by Halloween weekend.
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Split
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I want a gusty shower
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Chances the next 3 days look lower than it did before. I still think IAD has a good chance, but BWI and RIC may come up short.
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They still might reach the playoffs because there’s a lot of mediocrity in the division and the AFC. But a team like the chiefs or bills will crush them.
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Terrible. They’ve had second half leads in each game. Maybe even 4th quarter leads? Lamar’s interceptions the last few weeks have all been bad decisions.
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Ravens are allergic to holding leads
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I’M ALL IN
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Think it’s possible IAD freezes Tuesday, RIC Wednesday, and then BWI Thursday.
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Yeah, I agree with your general point that a “climo” airmass is increasingly insufficient for us to get snow outside of your yard. Need to get inland or north of NYC for a climo airmass to be sufficient. 2-4F of warming is a killer when a lot of past snowstorms were 30-34F wet snow events.
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-12 is a bit of an exaggeration because overnight temps are normally below freezing. Need like a -3 - -4 on the daily mean temp to have a daily mean temp below freezing.
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Start a medium/long range October and November thread if you’d like
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This feels a little bit lagging, but hoping the colors will be great when I’m at Deep Creek Lake next week.
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Wentz has been my fantasy QB since Dak got hurt. He actually put up a few good games, but these last 2 weeks…
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Maybe we need a medium/long range thread again, but it seems that the +PNA/-NAO pattern will probably continue to be durable for awhile, despite a period of -PNA coming after next week. This discourages me as I have a hard time imagining that continuing to hold into DJF.
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Good. Let’s have a solid 6 week period of -PNA to charge up the cold air source region and then get a pattern flip again in mid December.
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I slept through an earthquake!?
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Below normal temps and snow. Nickel and dimed to death with one good event that was a 33F paste bomb.
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Spreadsheet with all entries. Next Tuesday-Thursday continues to look like a legit chance for IAD and BWI at least. Monthly high of 81F so far at DCA. 2022 First Freeze Contest.xlsx
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With a -PNA, storms will typically cut west of us. The -NAO can force storms to redevelop on the coast after cutting west, which can create a Miller B bonanza for SNE while we smoke cirrus. A -PNA/-NAO combo can be very lucrative for NYC and points north. Much harder to get it to work for us.
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That’s rarely true down here.
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Best time of year that doesn’t involve ripping fatties
