WxUSAF

As @brooklynwx99 and @AtlanticWx have said, more confluence over the northeast and a taller Rockies ridge this GEFS run. But also more hints of phasing in northern stream energy around D6-7.

Down to 49. Damn near October out there right now!

As @brooklynwx99 said, a couple things a little better, couple little worse. At D9 it’s basically a hold on it’s crappy solution.

GFS has less confluence in the northeast than it did at 12z

Line of showers (storms?) getting close. After jogging outside in shorts and a T-shirt, feels like May!

GEFS/EPS/Euro combo is a pretty solid team. Just need it to hold for awhile.

This is obviously still a D9 event with all associated caveats, but as we’ve seen today, what happens around the 10-12th is critical to setting up confluence and any semblance of a workable airmass. That shortwave actually enters the CONUS over California in 72 hours! Here it is north of San Francisco. 24 hours later it’s out over the Plains. At the same time, the piece of the PV it merges with is swinging south on the west edge of Hudson Bay. So the table setters, so to speak, are not far off.

@psuhoffman fringed on a D9 coastal? Oh yeah, this is the one

Lol, Op GFS goes one way and GEFS actually goes toward more of a southern slider without turning up the coast. Weeeeee…

Not much water vapor has gotten into the northern hemisphere and basically none got into the northern stratosphere winter PV. So if there is any connection, I think it’s subtle and through some other feedback.

Someone else will have to check the digital blue report, but I like the surface and H5 evolution so far through hr192.

@psuhoffman, I agree as you know. But yeah, I’d hope the fresh 1040mb high pressure in a perfect spot could do SOMETHING useful. On a happier note, GEFS has a much more robust 50-50 feature and looks workable so far.

It 100% fits the seasonal trend

Oh jeez, GGEM on the cutter parade too all of a sudden.

1040 mb high in position f-cking A with a monster 50-50 and gfs is going to take this thing to Hudson Bay.

GGEM looks like 0z euro for the Sunday white rain threat. Most of the precip slides through VA.

GFS serving mashed potatoes for Sunday dinner

It’s close…maybe tomorrow am if it’s still a thing by then?

1200’ elevation in the Blue Ridge not worried about temps. Got to get that precip here!

It looked a lot like the 12z euro around D6-7, and then it just went crazy.

Seems like 2 general camps in the EPS. One stronger that rides the coast. One generally a bit weaker that’s more suppressed.

Tantalizingly close. I’d expect some nice hits in the ensembles. If things developed just as the euro showed, it would come down the precise track, strength, and timing of the PV and 50/50 type low in Canada. Gonna be awhile before that is sorted. Lot to like about this window.

No, it’s not cutting. Hr216 is pretty classic for us. Low near Memphis and big banana high over the top. Snow breaking out in the NC mountains.

Come on baby, daddy wants some digital blue…