WxUSAF

Blizzard warning issued for the Blue Ridge in VA

Based on turn Super Bowl halftime show, Fiddy could use a drop of fiddy

45.0/40.5

Red!

Storm threads are going to be unreadable

The 200km grid point spacing they use for plotting also seems like a poor decision

You rang?

Sweet! North side of my yard is in the @Ellinwood blue! South side is eating grey. Got to move the snowboard tonight…

More seriously, I like this 12z 3k NAM more than any previous meso runs for MBY. I noticed last night on the super long range hrrr, that it focused a wave of heavier precip through the metro corridors around 12-15z as cyclogenesis intensified to our south, but had it as snow. Earlier NAM runs had that as rain for us, but this NAM finally has it as snow as well. I think that feature is pretty critical to getting accumulation in the metros and lowlands below the fall line. If it’s ripping fatties and 31-34F as advertised, it will accumulate. If that feature is rain and it only turns to snow with that broad diffuse backside anafrontal precipitation, I’m a lot more skeptical of daytime accumulation outside the rural areas.

I’m going with the Kuchera 12:1 daytime March snow ratios

Odds for my yard: Trace or more: 75% 0.1” or more: 40% 1” or more: 15% 2” or more: lolz

For comparison, forecast Saturday 12-18z temp drop at Baltimore: Euro: 41—>33 GFS: 50—>32 GGEM: 45—>31 3k NAM: 43—>32

It doesn’t mean there won’t be cold air outbreaks again, just that they are rarer and less potent then they would have been 20-50-100 years ago. Take any daily temp anomaly threshold you want: +/-5F, 10F, 20F whatever. Look back over the last many years and compare how often you get that level warm anomaly vs cold anomaly. Warm always wins. You can look at this winter as an example. I’d have to double check, but I don’t think there were any -20F or greater daily departures at BWI in DJF. But there was like ~8 days with +20F. And yes yes, UHI exists, but UHI doesn’t take a “normal” day in rural/suburbs to +10 or +20 at the airport.

That’s explicitly December-February

Here’s your 2-4F warming

0.53” here. Lowest temp was 37.9.

Just because there’s no cold pattern on the horizon after Sunday doesn’t mean it won’t hit freezing again! Last freeze even in the cities is usually at least late March?

If you define the seasons more on weather patterns than the calendar, it seems to me that spring starts after this weekends cold shot. Cold air retreats well north next week and no sign of it returning.

38.8 with light rain

Snowcover enhanced to be sure, but the airmass looks cold. And transitory. Seems like 10s are a good bet for areas outside the metro corridor even without snowcover. Inside metro corridor, probably need snowcover to get that cold Sunday.

Oh boy, all we need is a 20F drop in 6 hours of daylight in mid March. Lock this up!

3k NAM sounding for MBY is only above freezing right at the surface. I’d it can thump like that at 7-9am, it should accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces.

And euro now has upper 10s for most of the burbs on Sunday morning.

Based on H5 heights it looks robust, but 2m temps seem low-mid 20s. Do you think that’s under done?