WxUSAF
-
Posts
26,428 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by WxUSAF
-
I think this conversation is heading in directions that aren’t relevant to this thread or subforum quickly.
-
Good lord. Show me this image and tell me it’s mid-January with no other context and I’d get a @stormtrackeresque poke-your-own-eye-out pants tent.
-
Sweet Jesus. Beating a dead horse here, but 12z eps has a 999mb low off Ocean City on the mean next Saturday! Damn perfection! Warm rain.
-
EPS playing follow the leader, at least in part. Whelp…12z started so well.
-
Thunderstorms to Montreal in mid January would be something.
-
I’m tossing it into the sun. Euro went from the most confluence to the least in a day.
-
Lol this is going to be a pretty huge swing from it’s 0z run
-
Euro remains pretty unenthusiastic. Just less precip so warmer solution.
-
Sure is. Which is why I’m glad to see a defined 850 low in a good spot for us on the GEFS. Your point about the airmass is well taken. Only way we improve that is if we go back to the pig 50-50 pushing in a fresh airmass ahead like we’ve seen on a couple Op runs. Otherwise it’s going to be trash. Question is if it’s just tolerable enough…I’d wager if we get an exact GEFS solution with a wound up low, we’d mostly frozen.
-
Yyyuuppp
-
Probably the best op GFS and GEFS run yet either way. GGEM was close and I don’t hate the crazy Ukie as it ends either.
-
Yyyeeeaaahhh…probably a lot of 31-34F verbatim. If we had a strong low take that exact track, it might be *just* cold enough. Don’t want that thing to stall and rot though like the op gfs.
-
It is. Freaking classic. Just a shit airmass so unsure if we can get enough cold air to take advantage of it.
-
@brooklynwx99 yes, lots more N stream phasing on GEFS. Confluence maybe a hair better than 6z, bit worse than 0z.
-
Sloppy phase that’s too late and too far north and east. Hence the 850 low/trough is NW of us.
-
It’s not going to be 10:1 ratios, but the gfs has a solid burst for N/NE MD. It would be a couple inches at least.
-
Precip and thermals are intimately connected here. Heavier precipitation = more evaporational and dynamical cooling = more snow. Light precip won’t cut it.
-
This is kinda a combo of what I mentioned this am with the 6z gfs. Some 50-50 and some northern stream phasing. But as you can see, it’s still not quite enough for us.
-
This is actually the best/closest solution gfs has yet had for this storm.
-
Best confluence over the NE in several runs actually. Sorta bootleg, but there is a defined 50-50 through 150hrs.
-
GFS would definitely get areas north of DC on the board. I’ll take it.
-
Kaiser has some bootleg confluence that pushes it south of its 0z solution. Not the pig 50-50 low we need here, but better.
-
I’d wag ratios would be like 5-6:1 in places that are cold enough to accumulate. White rain in warmer spots.
-
A strong 50-50 low providing timely confluence and cold air is the most obvious path to a majority frozen event for us. I think 6z gfs teased another path, but one with a lot more difficulty. Guidance has waffled on whether any northern stream energy phases into our big southern stream shortwave. 6z gfs phases it in somewhat late and in a sloppy manner. IF you can get that phase timed just right with just the right low location, it could supply some cold air. But that’s obviously a Hail Mary sort of option.
-
GEFS mean looks pretty good, but despite the much improved 50-50 low depiction, actually seems like there are more cutters in the individual members based on my eyeballing relative to previous runs today.
