WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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EPS playing follow the leader, at least in part. Whelp…12z started so well.
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Thunderstorms to Montreal in mid January would be something.
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I’m tossing it into the sun. Euro went from the most confluence to the least in a day.
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Lol this is going to be a pretty huge swing from it’s 0z run
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Euro remains pretty unenthusiastic. Just less precip so warmer solution.
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Sure is. Which is why I’m glad to see a defined 850 low in a good spot for us on the GEFS. Your point about the airmass is well taken. Only way we improve that is if we go back to the pig 50-50 pushing in a fresh airmass ahead like we’ve seen on a couple Op runs. Otherwise it’s going to be trash. Question is if it’s just tolerable enough…I’d wager if we get an exact GEFS solution with a wound up low, we’d mostly frozen.
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Yyyuuppp
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Probably the best op GFS and GEFS run yet either way. GGEM was close and I don’t hate the crazy Ukie as it ends either.
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Yyyeeeaaahhh…probably a lot of 31-34F verbatim. If we had a strong low take that exact track, it might be *just* cold enough. Don’t want that thing to stall and rot though like the op gfs.
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It is. Freaking classic. Just a shit airmass so unsure if we can get enough cold air to take advantage of it.
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@brooklynwx99 yes, lots more N stream phasing on GEFS. Confluence maybe a hair better than 6z, bit worse than 0z.
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Sloppy phase that’s too late and too far north and east. Hence the 850 low/trough is NW of us.
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It’s not going to be 10:1 ratios, but the gfs has a solid burst for N/NE MD. It would be a couple inches at least.
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Precip and thermals are intimately connected here. Heavier precipitation = more evaporational and dynamical cooling = more snow. Light precip won’t cut it.
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This is kinda a combo of what I mentioned this am with the 6z gfs. Some 50-50 and some northern stream phasing. But as you can see, it’s still not quite enough for us.
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This is actually the best/closest solution gfs has yet had for this storm.
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Best confluence over the NE in several runs actually. Sorta bootleg, but there is a defined 50-50 through 150hrs.
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GFS would definitely get areas north of DC on the board. I’ll take it.
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Kaiser has some bootleg confluence that pushes it south of its 0z solution. Not the pig 50-50 low we need here, but better.
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I’d wag ratios would be like 5-6:1 in places that are cold enough to accumulate. White rain in warmer spots.
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A strong 50-50 low providing timely confluence and cold air is the most obvious path to a majority frozen event for us. I think 6z gfs teased another path, but one with a lot more difficulty. Guidance has waffled on whether any northern stream energy phases into our big southern stream shortwave. 6z gfs phases it in somewhat late and in a sloppy manner. IF you can get that phase timed just right with just the right low location, it could supply some cold air. But that’s obviously a Hail Mary sort of option.
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GEFS mean looks pretty good, but despite the much improved 50-50 low depiction, actually seems like there are more cutters in the individual members based on my eyeballing relative to previous runs today.
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The ensemble mean consistently outperforms the Op model beyond about D4. But doesn’t mean that’s 100% true. If the Op runs remain outliers around D5, I’d start to wonder if it’s on to something.
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As @brooklynwx99 and @AtlanticWx have said, more confluence over the northeast and a taller Rockies ridge this GEFS run. But also more hints of phasing in northern stream energy around D6-7.
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Down to 49. Damn near October out there right now!
