WxUSAF

Meh. CFS flip flops like a fish, but seems “ok” to me for Feb. GEFSX would mean my magnolia is blooming after Valentine’s Day. I’m not going to worry about a workable pattern ending until the workable pattern at least arrives.

Oh dear. Now there’s definitely a storm brewing with the 12z runs.

Low of 27 with heavy frost

Snow is always an IMBY game of course, but I’ve been satisfied personally the last 2 Niña years (20-21 and 21-22) and our last Nino year (18-19). The disaster year (19-20) was ENSO neutral. No can kick either on todays 12z EPS. Good agreement with GEFS on longwave pattern and timing. Ridge out west goes up on the 20th-21st. So now we wait and see how real it is and how quickly we can cool down and have a storm chance.

JB’s brain is completely addled. But if we flip to a cold pattern around the 20-25th and maintain a cooler than normal pattern through much of February on balance, that will be a more Nino-like cycle. I think this winter has behaved more Nino-like than Niña-like so far for whatever reason. California waves hello…Nino’s have colder February’s and Nina’s have warm Februarys. So what will this year bring?

It’s a cold look for sure and finally the 2m temp plots start to reflect that. Reminds me of 13-14 with a -AO/-EPO/+PNA/and a WAR. The western ridge starts to pop around hr240-264, so getting pretty close to a time range with good ensemble skill. No sign of a can kick.

@psuhoffman…with a PNA/EPO ridge unconnected to the ridging over the Atlantic side across Canada and a piece of the PV in between, central Canada cools down in only 48 hours after the ridge goes up.

12z GEFS (and really the last few GEFS runs) looks more like the EPS in the D11+ range.

Yeah…January 2022 was a solid winter month. Two events the first week, one warning and one high-advisory level, then the MLK day storm, and then a couple minor events.

It’s a joke

101 ensemble members guarantees that 1 will always show a HECS!

Oh yeah it’s beautiful. Areas north of Philly or even north of NYC obviously have a lot more wiggle room than us. Miller Bs suck for us usually because they form too far north. You can see on the euro that even with a low popping off Hatteras it takes time for it to develop a CCB precip shield and we get wraparound snow only. 50mi north shift there and it’s congrats Philly. 150mi and congrats Poconos or Catskills. Still…way better than no chance.

This scenario: cutter followed by northern stream Miller B is obviously a low-likelihood chance for us and nailing where any snow band forms will be a very dicey prospect…but a 10% chance is a helluva lot better than the 0% we had. And it’s only 4-5 days out.

@psuhoffman…12z GEFS says 3-4 days to flush PAC puke out of central Canada and replace it with BN temps after the PNA/EPO ridge pops.

Have to take a number and I already got number 001.

GGEM has a 4 county wide blizzard and gfs has a January hurricane. Your move, euro!

As good as the chiefs are, I think the afc comes down to the bills and bengals.

Agreed. Gives a shadow of a hope next week if the offense is healthy and somewhat functional.

Ravens might lose by 30+

If we get that tall coupled PNA and EPO ridge, it will build homegrown cold. It’s just physics. No WAA off the PAC coupled with low sun angle and radiating snow cover. Question is how fast and then how long to transport it south. You can probably do some sort of back of the envelope calculation on this… My intuition is something like 4-8 days to regenerate at least normal if not BN temps in central Canada, then another 3-5 days for southward transport. So if that ridge does develop with a trough in the east, maybe 6-7 days at least before you can fully flush the mild air out?

My eyeball 2C is that the GEFS has done very well with the longwave pattern beyond D8 this winter. Even better than the EPS several times. But the euro suite is absolutely kicking the GFS/GEFS ass with individual storms inside of D7-8.

Low of 26.

Low of 33. Will be at least January 8 before it gets below freezing IMBY in 2023.

Still a very Nino look. What a strange year.

18z NAM and 4 drinks and I feel a lot more zen about the euro/eps