WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Someone posted something on this either here or on Twitter in the last week. We still don’t want a super strong -PNA.
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I think I’m as optimistic as anyone about this pattern and I have two assumptions: 1. It will probably take longer than “expected” to get snow out of this upcoming pattern. 2. Our December snow climo sucks, so a “good” productive pattern this month might still result in like 3” for DCA and 4-6” for BWI and IAD. Winter’s back!!
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Off topic, but has anyway been getting a LOT more really shitty ads on Twitter the last few days?
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Southern slider first, congrats Raleigh. Second storm cuts north of us, congrats Chowdahheads. Maybe we get the third storm before the big Xmas torch??
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It doesn't mean it's right, but as I said yesterday (?) the EPS has been rock-solid for days now with the RELOADED pattern while the GEFS has bounced between very similar-to-the-EPS looks and bigger -PNA looks. I don't see any reason to switch off the EPS at this point.
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It’s got a hint of that southern slider look around the 9th and 10th also. Euro showing that at 12z too but it’s way south.
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2010 analog keeps popping up... I wouldn't dare suggest 95-96 yet.
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-AO hitting -3 or -4 in December also bodes well for January and beyond.
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32.5 for the low to start winter. Probably will go below that this evening before midnight.
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We’ve been tracking a pattern change for like 8 days and I’m already exhausted.
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18z GFS is a total tease after Dec 5
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Another great thread from Tomer. Dec 15-20 would be a nice window...
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I guess I don't know DT's latest Twitter handle since he's been suspended so many times lol
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GEFS been more bouncy after D10, but EPS rock solid with the double-bunner look for many days now.
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We’ve had a long run of pretty crappy decembers. 2013 was the last one with solid snowfall I think. 2017 was ok and 2020 had a nice event, but been a pretty dry stretch since 2013.
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Digital blue on all 3 major globals today. Finally starting to get in range where threats and storm windows are appearing and things seem to be roughly in the pattern that’s been well covered already. One thing to keep in mind that’s not just weenie hopium: when you have extreme blocking, we can and often will get southward/colder adjustments in the medium range rather than the more typical northward/warm adjustment. Buckle up, we could be busy.
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12z GGEM making me look like a GD genius lol
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One thing to watch with todays runs: the storm around the 7th that was looking like it would usher in the pattern seems to be breaking up into different shortwaves vs phasing into a strong cutter. What we’d like is for the northern stream to drag in the cold air and then let something scoot along to our south.
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Ha. I’m traveling that week also. Mentally calculating how much it would cost me in a one way rental car to get home for our KU if my flight gets cancelled
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^that looks a lot like the 12z GGEM and euro
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This seems to be the big mystery with a lot of fans screaming for him to play
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Fantastic thread here on ensemble clusters for the upcoming pattern
