ENSO forecasts are pegging a Nino developing, but they’re always iffy until later in spring. And yes, whether it’s east-based (Nino 1+2) or west-based (Nino 3+4) makes a difference for us, but Nino years in general are reliably our best snow years.
I tend to agree and the chart time starts with a 1 instead of a 2 or 3!
P.S. if I’m betting cutter vs suppressed, I’ll go with the seasonal trend for now.
GEFS has certainly been moving in a more favorable direction for the window around the 3rd with a much better located PNA ridge showing up in the last 24 hours.
GFS helpfully waits until the arctic air has nearly left before bringing up that slug of moisture. Meanwhile, NC and southern VA are turned into a ZR glacier.