ENSO forecasts are pegging a Nino developing, but they’re always iffy until later in spring. And yes, whether it’s east-based (Nino 1+2) or west-based (Nino 3+4) makes a difference for us, but Nino years in general are reliably our best snow years.
I tend to agree and the chart time starts with a 1 instead of a 2 or 3!
P.S. if I’m betting cutter vs suppressed, I’ll go with the seasonal trend for now.
GEFS has certainly been moving in a more favorable direction for the window around the 3rd with a much better located PNA ridge showing up in the last 24 hours.