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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. That event had an unexpected mesoscale low form along the front which produced that boom in snow totals. I think what the gfs just spit out would be way more dynamic synoptically.
  2. That’s wild. And that snow along the arctic front on the GFS is “real” and not an illusion like sometimes happens on the backside of storms on certain plots.
  3. This is some useful info from the EPS I found on Twitter just now. Here’s the MSLP anomaly next Friday. And this shows MEDIAN temp departure at the same time. Median avoids outliers, which in this case would be the Op on the warm end and perhaps earlier passing storms on the cold side. Temps in the teens…
  4. @psuhoffman, maybe a lot again comes back to what people mean for “cash in.” I know some are HECS or bust. I’m not and maybe that’s my befuddlement. I’ve said a few times that something like 3” for DCA and ~6” for IAD and BWI would be wins in my book for December. That’s like 200% of normal! And if that comes via a front end thump that eventually mixes or changes over and then is followed by arctic air…bring it on I say.
  5. ^That 987mb off Wallops Island would be acceptable I think.
  6. Looks disastrous. Better pack it up and maybe we get lucky in March before spring arrives for good.
  7. As I said earlier, the Op runs have been wanting to phase in the PV and make it dig deep in the Rockies over the last day or two. Not sure why, but the ensemble means want nothing to do with that. If that dichotomy continues through ~Sunday, then I'll start to get mildly concerned.
  8. Close the shades?? This is "close the shades"?? I mean, are we only hunting for HECS here? That ^^ is like a 9/10 look for snow chances for us. The VAST majority of our snow falls in a long wave pattern that is not a 10/10. If we can only deal with 10/10 or we only get snow in 10/10 patterns, then it's time to move north or quit this hobby.
  9. Nice post @brooklynwx99! Having the ridge along the west coast vs slightly inland would normally favor a coastal runner or inland track. But the Atlantic side, with the PV well west of the canonical 50-50 location will fight against that. Long way out still, but with a very good airmass in place, I’d favor at least SOME frozen for everyone. Best chance at a white Christmas since 2010 without a doubt.
  10. Yup. For whatever reason, the last 24-36 hours of Op runs have often wanted to phase in the PV to this event. Ensembles want nothing of the sort.
  11. When it comes to arctic PVs phasing into giant storms, the Canadians should obviously be better equipped to model that
  12. Dude's 87 years old, you can't just make him dance for nothing!
  13. I'm skeptical of that much sleet for areas south of @mappy/ @psuhoffman / @HighStakes, etc. But we'll see. If my kids can slant stick 0.1" of sleet accumulation I will take it! There's not going to be any snow for our subforum's region outside of maybe the northern part of the Blue Ridge area or eastern WV/Garrett County MD.
  14. You mean next Thursday’s massive cutter that will ruin Christmas and our great pattern?
  15. I know when I was a kid in Harford county there was chatter about splitting off North Harford HS like the Hereford zone. As a kid outside that zone, I was of course violently opposed . Hasn’t happened still.
  16. In a "normal" winter (if we ever have such a thing), there's probably 1-3 days where an east/west split would make sense for a HoCo school delay or closing. And I think that's just not worth the fight and logistical headache to make that work out.
  17. Given the redistricting experiences I've watched, I'd imagine some very angry people with strange alliances of convenience. "Easiest" way would be to have the Glenelg HS and its feeder schools separated for these sort of events, but I've seen no major effort to try and do something like the Hereford zone for HoCo.
  18. Nope, we're uniters not dividers in HoCo!
  19. There will be a little ice out by Mt. Airy and Sykesville and my kids will get a "rain day" Thursday. Book it.
  20. For perspective, the last -20F or greater wintertime (DJFM) departure at BWI was Jan 31, 2019. We've had MANY +20F days in DJFM since then.
  21. Normal high/low the last week of December is like 45/28? Gives a mean daily temp of 36ish. So 25F off that is mean daily temp of 11F. I’ll take the over.
  22. Precise timing and orientation varies, but this s/w could produce some flurries or snow showers Saturday I’d think.
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