WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Don’t look at the 18z gfs
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Just under 0.2”
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Next Mon-Tues has jumped up in all guidance over the last couple days as a possible rain event. Euro drops 0.5-1” area wide.
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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
WxUSAF replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
64mph gust at FDK -
It often does this nonsense. Canadian mesos agree with the NAM, although Herpderp does an annoying skipdedoo over MBY.
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NAM 3k continues to show a high N-S oriented line move through the metros between 6-8pm. How long has it been since we had one of those instead of patchy pulse crap?
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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
WxUSAF replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Mesos seem to be in lockstep with a line moving through the metros between 6-8pm. Agree with @high risk, just hoping for some decent rain. -
I just looked at my neighbor’s PWS website and saw we had ~0.1” of rain last night. Confirmed with with my cheapie rain gauge. Was around midnight. Everything was dry when I woke up this am and I didn’t notice. @Herb@MAWS @Scraff did you get anything?
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We might need a tropical system to break the flash drought we’re entering. Euro and GFS both basically skunk us through D10+.
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Average or not, I’m done with this. Euro is weaksaucing the cold front next week and that’s annoying me. GFS and GGEM are more robust and drop us a frigid 5F below normal or so.
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Slight QBO disruption by Hunga Tonga.
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Interesting radar signature over DC right now. Skies are clear, so not clouds. Migrating birds??
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Why? A -WPO in insolation usually is bad for us and teleconnects to a SE ridge. It’s only useful if it can rollover into the EPO and PNA domains.
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I’m in Greenbelt and pouring here again
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Damn would it be extra nice if the 12z gfs 300hr prog verified verbatim just once. Big fall FROPA giving temps in the mid-upper 60s for my daughter’s first high school marching band halftime performance.
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MCS/MCV type radar signature with those storms in VA. Mesos all dissipate them before getting to the metro area but I’m skeptical given that organization.
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Counter point: snow days are awesome
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Ops and ensembles both don’t show any significant heat through the end of their runs. May run above normal still, mostly due to warm low temps. That puts us out to the very end of august or early September. Still obviously can get heat in September, but becomes increasingly unusual. Fingers crossed.
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Interesting boundary moving east through MD. Currently extending from about Frederick down to DC. Don’t think its outflow?
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Usually it’s swallows of some kind. Probably purple martins.
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Quarter inch of rain overnight. Euro kicked butt on this event I think.
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Many/most Canada geese around us are now year-round residents. So probably just moving between feedings.
