WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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He’s having a fit because Tony Pann is hyping snow
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Lol they’re going to get embarrassed in a WC game
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You all heard it! @high risk says get your shovels ready!
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All 3 ops have a pretty healthy shortwave. Just can’t slow down and turn the corner.
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Compare with the GGEM on TT. It shows “blue” but with basically no accumulation on the snow maps. I tried to look on Pivotal (with 3hr resolution) to see if there’s a wave that forms on the front and can explain the 1-3” on the GFS. Answer is “maybe”…isobars do look a little baggy as the front passes.
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I’m not saying it will happen, but I think the TT and Pivotal snow plots are “real”. Snow behind an arctic front is pretty common with this sort of dynamics. This is the juiciest I’ve seen it though yet.
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Thread for anyone who wants to track highs in the 20s and possible flurries. This isn’t medium range anymore.
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Has chances after the warm cutter though
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Holy shit. Insanity
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Later in the season we can get by with a more hostile Pac and a beautiful -NAO as wavelengths shorten, but this time of year… Personally, I’m not punting the last 8 days of this month.
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Temps definitely busted warm overnight. Low of 34 when the forecast was mid-upper 20s. Maybe the clouds?
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Dobbins and Edwards averaged 9 ypc, and they only scored 3 points
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Unsurprisingly, lack of points on the ravens first drive is looming large
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Dusting-1.5” verbatim with the arctic front. I’d take it as the pathetic addict I am.
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Kinda like with the big Plains low we just had, this 23rd storm has to be nailed down before we can figure out how it adjusts the wave guide and impacts anything after.
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Sigh. Time to root for something on the front end or snow showers with the arctic front.
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If there’s some sort of general meeting in the middle between the Euro/GGEM and gfs solutions, there’s a variety of ways we could get *some* frozen precip. Whether that’s on the front end or with the arctic front at the end or both.
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This is still not in the Euro camp though by any means. This is a change from the 12z run that would be reasonable at 72-96hr leads, let alone 160.
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Euro looks way different than even its own 0z solution. Let's not kid ourselves into thinking it's rock steady against a favorable outcome.
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We basically want that whole area of low 500mb heights to get pulled like taffy, with one big clump moving toward Ontario and the other pinwheeling around it down the Rockies and into the Plains. 0z Euro did that some, although not to the degree the 12z GFS did. 12z euro seems to be stubbornly staying as one big wad.
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GEFS going to be gorgeous. Probably playing follow-the-leader, but it's there.
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Visual. Not surprisingly, GEFS looks a lot like the GFS.
