WxUSAF
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Based on a crappy SV EPS snowmap I just saw on Twitter, it keeps tacking on through the end of the run and still ends up with some gaudy totals? But sharper southern gradient then earlier runs.
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Several days ago, the storm looked like this multiple series of waves with varying p-types. These MECS solutions consolidated the energy and early in the week. Now we’re back to a bunch of waves along the boundary. Still lots of time left.
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Euro I guess still had C-1” Saturday evening with a little ice after
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How does sleet look tonight?
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12z euro-18z gfs blend from yesterday is now the floor. Anything less than 15-20” is a fail.
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Gfs was between 12-18z Monday now. I’d wager that’s a large part of what the EPS is reflecting. Earlier start. Kinda crazy when we started watching this event, it was evening of the 12th into the 13th.
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Storm start keeps moving earlier and earlier. GFS has that precursor idea on Monday! 126 hours out. 2nd batch about 24-30 hours later. Euro was about 12 hours slower.
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Separating this out.
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Gfs-euro blend seems acceptable
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Eh not sure about that. Continues to look drier and hence less impactful.
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Nor’easter comes from the predominant wind direction, typically during big coastal storms. This storm is forecast to be a bit different (primarily an “overrunning” event), but winds would shift to northeast at the end according to the euro.
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Based on their AFD, I think LWX has issued WWAs, but haven’t seen them populate yet
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Now that pivotal loaded the good frames…wow. We get the full WAA to CCB pivot
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Once we get the MECS out of the way, we should be able to see the set up for the good pattern
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lol and I was about to post that euro is C-1” for metros on Saturday
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Richmond’s Feb 2010 verbatim
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I mean, GFS still has 10-14” area wide over the next 10 days and this is an “off” run, so…
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Without the blocking established yet, some wiggle room south is fine at D7.
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Good hit for RIC.
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Light snow by dawn Tuesday in GGEM. Vort is very weak relative to gfs.
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Yeah gfs went opposite of the mesos
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12z mesos don’t seem as impactful to my eye as previous runs. Weaker or nonexistent with that narrow snow band tomorrow and a tick warmer.
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We are all either super confident and chill about all this or we’ve lost a bunch of posters lol. Wake up to like 2.5 new pages in the long range thread and less than 1 new page for tomorrow-Thursday and I figured overnight runs were a disaster. Nope! We have 3 winter storms in the next 8 days! Ho hum!
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It’s possible. Gonna be close for northern areas.
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We’ll have freezing or near freezing temps for about 24 hours leading into ice Wednesday night. I doubt roads will get too icy but sidewalks could be slick. They’re gonna close schools Thursday…
