WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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-12 is a bit of an exaggeration because overnight temps are normally below freezing. Need like a -3 - -4 on the daily mean temp to have a daily mean temp below freezing.
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Start a medium/long range October and November thread if you’d like
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This feels a little bit lagging, but hoping the colors will be great when I’m at Deep Creek Lake next week.
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Wentz has been my fantasy QB since Dak got hurt. He actually put up a few good games, but these last 2 weeks…
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Maybe we need a medium/long range thread again, but it seems that the +PNA/-NAO pattern will probably continue to be durable for awhile, despite a period of -PNA coming after next week. This discourages me as I have a hard time imagining that continuing to hold into DJF.
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Good. Let’s have a solid 6 week period of -PNA to charge up the cold air source region and then get a pattern flip again in mid December.
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I slept through an earthquake!?
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Below normal temps and snow. Nickel and dimed to death with one good event that was a 33F paste bomb.
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Spreadsheet with all entries. Next Tuesday-Thursday continues to look like a legit chance for IAD and BWI at least. Monthly high of 81F so far at DCA. 2022 First Freeze Contest.xlsx
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With a -PNA, storms will typically cut west of us. The -NAO can force storms to redevelop on the coast after cutting west, which can create a Miller B bonanza for SNE while we smoke cirrus. A -PNA/-NAO combo can be very lucrative for NYC and points north. Much harder to get it to work for us.
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That’s rarely true down here.
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Best time of year that doesn’t involve ripping fatties
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Next Tuesday-Thursday seems like a good first freeze chance for many of the colder burbs. IAD and BWI possibly as well. Even ensemble means have widespread 30s for lows those days.
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Ravens seem to have good game plans to start the last few weeks, but the other teams make adjustments and they can’t seem to adjust back.
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Think IAD got to 34
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35.6F for the low so far! Car is frosty. Eta… 35.2 for low
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Already 42 IMBY
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Looks like BWI stayed in the 50s today Except for the midnight high
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Low of 44. Hoping to get into the 30s tomorrow.
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Bump. Thread locks up tonight!
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BWI: 10/22 IAD: 10/22 RIC: 11/7 DCA: 11/14 Tie: 81F
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Perhaps in response to HT strat water vapor in the Southern Hemisphere being picked up? And if there is a -NAO, can it pair up with a favorable or non-hostile Pac at times?
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The seasons have definitely switched as the GFS has quickly gone from overdoing D10+ heatwaves to overdoing D10+ cold fronts.
