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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. Yeah…GEFS isn’t as good for us with this 12z run. Slight can kick, but more importantly it keeps the ridge axis well off the west coast. That teleconnects to more SE ridge and hence has a cold and dry, warm and wet sorta pattern.
  2. With a very active pattern over the next 10+ days, the last 2 GFS and GGEM runs show how eventually one of those can work out for us for some frozen precipitation. One cutter goes through and blows up as a transient 50-50 low and provides enough cold air and/or a far enough south storm track for the subsequent storm to put us on the happy side of the thermal boundary. But even this is still after January 20 as the pattern is hopefully transitioning.
  3. Meh. CFS flip flops like a fish, but seems “ok” to me for Feb. GEFSX would mean my magnolia is blooming after Valentine’s Day. I’m not going to worry about a workable pattern ending until the workable pattern at least arrives.
  4. Oh dear. Now there’s definitely a storm brewing with the 12z runs.
  5. Snow is always an IMBY game of course, but I’ve been satisfied personally the last 2 Niña years (20-21 and 21-22) and our last Nino year (18-19). The disaster year (19-20) was ENSO neutral. No can kick either on todays 12z EPS. Good agreement with GEFS on longwave pattern and timing. Ridge out west goes up on the 20th-21st. So now we wait and see how real it is and how quickly we can cool down and have a storm chance.
  6. JB’s brain is completely addled. But if we flip to a cold pattern around the 20-25th and maintain a cooler than normal pattern through much of February on balance, that will be a more Nino-like cycle. I think this winter has behaved more Nino-like than Niña-like so far for whatever reason. California waves hello…Nino’s have colder February’s and Nina’s have warm Februarys. So what will this year bring?
  7. It’s a cold look for sure and finally the 2m temp plots start to reflect that. Reminds me of 13-14 with a -AO/-EPO/+PNA/and a WAR. The western ridge starts to pop around hr240-264, so getting pretty close to a time range with good ensemble skill. No sign of a can kick.
  8. @psuhoffman…with a PNA/EPO ridge unconnected to the ridging over the Atlantic side across Canada and a piece of the PV in between, central Canada cools down in only 48 hours after the ridge goes up.
  9. 12z GEFS (and really the last few GEFS runs) looks more like the EPS in the D11+ range.
  10. Yeah…January 2022 was a solid winter month. Two events the first week, one warning and one high-advisory level, then the MLK day storm, and then a couple minor events.
  11. 101 ensemble members guarantees that 1 will always show a HECS!
  12. Oh yeah it’s beautiful. Areas north of Philly or even north of NYC obviously have a lot more wiggle room than us. Miller Bs suck for us usually because they form too far north. You can see on the euro that even with a low popping off Hatteras it takes time for it to develop a CCB precip shield and we get wraparound snow only. 50mi north shift there and it’s congrats Philly. 150mi and congrats Poconos or Catskills. Still…way better than no chance.
  13. This scenario: cutter followed by northern stream Miller B is obviously a low-likelihood chance for us and nailing where any snow band forms will be a very dicey prospect…but a 10% chance is a helluva lot better than the 0% we had. And it’s only 4-5 days out.
  14. @psuhoffman…12z GEFS says 3-4 days to flush PAC puke out of central Canada and replace it with BN temps after the PNA/EPO ridge pops.
  15. Have to take a number and I already got number 001.
  16. GGEM has a 4 county wide blizzard and gfs has a January hurricane. Your move, euro!
  17. As good as the chiefs are, I think the afc comes down to the bills and bengals.
  18. Agreed. Gives a shadow of a hope next week if the offense is healthy and somewhat functional.
  19. If we get that tall coupled PNA and EPO ridge, it will build homegrown cold. It’s just physics. No WAA off the PAC coupled with low sun angle and radiating snow cover. Question is how fast and then how long to transport it south. You can probably do some sort of back of the envelope calculation on this… My intuition is something like 4-8 days to regenerate at least normal if not BN temps in central Canada, then another 3-5 days for southward transport. So if that ridge does develop with a trough in the east, maybe 6-7 days at least before you can fully flush the mild air out?
  20. My eyeball 2C is that the GEFS has done very well with the longwave pattern beyond D8 this winter. Even better than the EPS several times. But the euro suite is absolutely kicking the GFS/GEFS ass with individual storms inside of D7-8.
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