WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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We’re like 84 hours out and it’s been rock steady. It’s been killing it inside D5, so got to like where we stand
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GEFS is odd but I’m good with including weak/south members in a mental super ensemble with other guidance, especially when the general trend is more amplified. And tonight’s 0z run is probably the last time I’d care about GEFS anyway for this storm?
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Drier. Less phasing? Doesn’t look north based on that.
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8-14” is exactly what I’ve been thinking this morning
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Did GEFS get posted? Still in a range where it has utility.
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Kuchie my Ukie baby!
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I mean yes, I’ll be happy to wake up to 12” of snow on Sunday morning but when I hear it pinging while I sip my coffee winter will be ruined
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I think that makes a lot of sense with how deep this arctic airmass is. These NAM runs are going to be showing like 3-4” of sleet I’d bet for the mid-south in the next couple days.
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NAM more phased than6z euro at 72 hours. NAM gonna NAM?
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Would be pretty clutch right now to NOT have stopped a bunch of Alaska upper air launches
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FWIW, we’re in that range where EuroAI has been deadly and I think pretty much our entire sub would sign up for its 6z in a hot minute.
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Just saw a 0z vs 6z Ukie H5 change plot on Twitter. Quite a bit less interaction between N and S shortwaves at 21z Friday. TPV also pressing more to our north. We’re probably going to windshield wiper a bit but with progressively less amplitude for next 24-48 hours?
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Obviously this is a very anomalous event, so maybe the usual rules don’t apply. But I’m keeping some otherwise very durable seasonal and La Niña patterns in my mind: short-term deamplification, suppressing SE ridge, destructive interference from the northern jet, and drier reality than modeled.
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Apple weather helpfully predicting 23-29” storm total
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A trade we’re making with this stronger phasing is more precip for a mix risk. And potentially that’s a trade that could get us more snow in total. Going to see some ridiculous QPF predictions from the mesos by tomorrow. Technically 99% isn’t a lock?
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14” was horrible?? lol
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No. It was a pounding WAA thump (14” for me), then drizzle all day, and then a few more inches of snow in the evening with the ULL.
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RE: mixing, I was thinking that to myself yesterday that a giant phasing trough over Colorado would normally be screaming cutter. Only that beast of a NAO/50-50 combo forces it south. But shows how much wiggle room we have here for a major event.
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Good morning weenies. People have been mentioning Feb 2014 at times for this storm. I don’t remember the synoptic setup, but I remember that beatdown of a WAA thump. Maybe this is a colder version? 12” EPS mean is bonkers. Hitting NAM/RGEM range for storm start time with the 12z suite!
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I would think this probably wouldn’t be ingested for 0z. Probably 6z?
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Only 3 complete whiffs and 1 scraper on 18 EPS per @Weather Will’s maps? As I recall @NorthArlington101said it was like 7 and 2 for 12z?
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I went out about 15mins ago. Maybe the tiniest red/purple shading on a 10s exposure mixed in with sky glow from light pollution?
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Great work @SnowenOutThere!
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Got to smell the sleet to get the goods
