WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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It’s a needle threader though to get JUST enough ULL strength in the Plains and JUST enough spacing with the 50-50 so the coastal can turn the corner but stay offshore. But that’s the 6z solution I guess so it’s possible. Just hard.
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Strangest MECS in history or this is a BUsT!1!!11!!1
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Life comes at ya fast in mid-Atlantic La Niña winters
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Miller notgonnaBsnowinginthemidatlantic
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Ha. I was thinking that if there weren’t some NSFW worthy EPS members today than they need to unplug ECMWF and plug it back in.
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Yes true. Big jump south and weaker with the ULL. Just nowhere near as dramatic as GFS.
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Euro keeps the primary low and ULL much stronger than gfs or even the GGEM. That has to weaken if we want any frozen precip.
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Great pull @Cobalt
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If you want to play that game, a GGEM/GFS blend would be [cousin Eddie voice] really nice [/cousin Eddie voice].
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It’s more a function of having a -PNA with monster Atlantic side blocking. Storm is jacked coming out of the Rockies and then starts to get sheared and shredded by the Atlantic blocking. Gets pushed south and then a coastal redevelopment of some kind happens. A zillion moving parts here so expect very little consistency.
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Blocking giveth and blocking taketh away
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Primary in Iowa and snow to the NC line. Insanity.
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GFS colder than 6z through 120… can’t believe I’m doing PBP of this
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The farther south you are the more you’ll rely on some west coast ridging (+PNA) to force cold air and the storm track south. I think for all of us, better wintry precip chances probably come after next weeks storm. And any specific threat will be highly contingent on what happens to next weeks storm, so can’t diagnose more than that now. I’ll remain skeptical of any major frozen event from next week’s storm for awhile, but if I was north of NYC, I’d be getting excited.
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Weaker ULL and redonkulous blocking produces a very unusual solution. It can happen, but wonky for obvious reasons. I’d like to see that solution after this New England weekend storm gets blown up offshore.
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Well I’ll say this…I feel confident we haven’t seen the final solution yet for that storm. And crazy things happen with the kind of blocking advertised for next week.
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Lol a primary low that takes an Omaha to Chicago track and then becomes a Miller B off Wilmington NC and gives us a MECS
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Thanks @psuhoffman and @AtlanticWx. 1989 makes sense. Those 1967/1996 seem like too much -PNA (we hope).
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@psuhoffman @CAPE @Ian or anyone else with a photographic memory or with a good database: have we ever had a -EPO/-AO/-NAO/-PNA pattern in a La Niña December? Or any La Niña winter month? And if so, what did they produce?
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That low is continuing to trend south and slower as it gets shoved under the block and this weekend’s light NE event turns into a big ocean low and also suppresses the flow. So there’s some room there if we can get some precip to stretch our toward us. I think this weekend and Mon-Thurs of next week could be pretty sneakily cold.
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I think there’s a long shot chance at something on the front end of that big cutter/cutoff low. Need a piece of energy to run out ahead along the warm front while we have CAD. I think the chance we get anything from a coastal redevelopment is nil.
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I’m glad this pattern is finally going to change next week because I’m tired of looking at long range ensemble longwave patterns.
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Kinda crazy to think, but by next Thursday the 15th, it’s quite plausible that we will only have had 3 AN in the month! The 3rd, 7th, and today. But because all 3 of those days are double-digit warm departures, the total monthly departure by next week could be pretty modest. Poor @leesburg 04. No 70F before the pre-Xmas torch
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We want weaker waves that don’t cut or trailing waves that follow along the boundary laid down by a previous stronger storm. Always takes some timing and a bit of luck, but those are very typical ways we get a snow event in the mid-Atlantic.
