WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Kicker shortwave appears out of nowhere and shoved it east. Still a pretty gorgeous H5 look as I posted above.
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Something I noticed. Trying to figure out why our shortwave for the 22-23rd is digging so much more in the last 24hrs worth of runs. I think it’s this lead shortwave that moves through the Lakes around D4-5. It sort of merges with and pulls a piece of the 50-50 low west. This provides a lot more suppression of our shortwave and forces it well south. Compare yesterday and todays 18z GFS runs.
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Not sure if it will come together, but if we didn’t have a digital HECS 48hrs before this panel, I’d be stoked. This is a canonical look. #CAPEStorm2022
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We’re basically at D7 for the storm being on our door step. Long way to go but I like where we sit for now. I’d like to see us in a similar position (with wiggle room to maintain a nice event) around 0z Sunday. Everyone should also remember that even an area wide 3-6” type event would be HIGH TIER for mid-Atlantic La Niña December’s.
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We have sooooo much more leeway and margin for error if we get the shortwave to get south of our latitude. Increases the floor AND the ceiling.
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Solid week? We got teased a couple times that it would get forced to our south, but think that was all like D9? I’d have to go back in the thread to be sure.
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Snow into the cities by 0z next Thursday. Looks a bit euro like. But think this will end satisfactorily for most.
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Good snow shower here at O’Hare as I wait for my flight home. Vis around 1mi? Hoping it doesn’t screw up departures…
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@Heisy has gone from having his blinds closed because cutter to having them closed because fish storm in 48hrs
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Oh you sweet summer child. No self respecting weenie shows snow DEPTH.
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Woooo baby. Classic.
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Really nice trends the last 12-24 hours. Long way to go still, but I wanted to see the shortwave dig more , and that’s exactly what we’re getting. I’d expect a few monsters in the EPS.
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Just Misses the full phase, capture, and TUCK, but this is a very merry Christmas from the euro.
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Hohoho bitches
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If it’s next Monday and Hoffman is complaining about being fringed, we’ll finally know itshappening.gif
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12z GGEM waves hello lol
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As long as you kick the mods 20% of your winnings, we good.
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Everyone needs to adopt the balanced, measured attitude and reasonable expectations of…*checks notes*… @leesburg 04?
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It’s always snow on Mt Parkton
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#blessed
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My kids say there's ice on the trees and what happens if one of those branches falls on a kid walking to school?!? Thoughts on that dangerous situation, @mattie g?? Shame on HoCo schools for not closing
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Ensembles work by perturbing the intensity and location of features to account for errors and uncertainty. At D7-8, it’s perfectly normal to have a much broader area of low pressure than what will ultimately occur. Plus, always be a little more skeptical when a model suite’s solutions are playing up its biases: 1. Progressive bias for GFS 2. over amplified bias for Euro 3. wonky 2m temps for GGEM
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Hot damn. This checks all the boxes for big east coast winter storm. Elongated PV toward the 50-50 region? Check. -NAO in Baffin Island region? Check. -AO? —-AO! +PNA with inland ridge axis? Check. Big shortwave diving south? Check.
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We’ve definitely gotten nice trends on the Atlantic side the last 24 hours or so. More mixed out west it seems. I’d love for that ULL to dig for Memphis, but haven’t seen any sign of that. Still time for large changes.
