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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Yeah, maybe goes without saying, but for us east of the mountains in the mid-Atlantic to get snow in the post-thanksgiving period, something like that 6z gfs option is probably the best odds. Fresh cold airmass comes in and trailing wave is weak and moves along the thermal boundary to our south. A stronger storm would pull warmer air in and sink our chances east of the mountains. That’s more like 12z gfs next Saturday.
  2. WxUSAF
    I was just over 60” in 13-14 and I’m like <10 miles from BWI.
  3. WxUSAF
    ^still kinda crazy it’s even a bit FARTHER west than 2002/2009/1986. Despite our superdeeduper east based Nino. But I like descending motion over the maritime continent for sure.
  4. WxUSAF
    MJO progression into phases 3-4 (if it gets there) would suggest warmer risks going into December. That would also fit mod+ Nino climo. So we’ll see. But I think we get some sort of event in December.
  5. WxUSAF
    6z gfs agrees
  6. WxUSAF
    Ha jinx except I posted in banter
  7. WxUSAF
    Happy hour GFS saves winter before the turkey’s in the oven!!
  8. WxUSAF
    I personally toss 91-92 entirely due to Pinatubo. And Pinatubo =\ Hunga Tonga. 57-58 seems to have a lot going for it as an analog. It was a well AN snowfall winter as well. I think even adjusting it for climate warming would suggest optimism for snow.
  9. WxUSAF
    Wooo baby
  10. WxUSAF
    Yeah EPS like the other ensembles are pretty cold after the midweek storm next week. Certainly upslope and lake effect will kick in at times. Doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility to get some frozen precip east of the mountains if things shake out right.
  11. WxUSAF
    Canaan valley in 30-35” would maybe be their least snowy year on record? Lol
  12. WxUSAF
    Snow stockholm syndrome
  13. WxUSAF
    12z GGEM is crazy cold for thanksgiving and would suggest snow flurries/showers verbatim especially for folks N/W and in the mountains.
  14. WxUSAF
    Great thread from @wxmvpete about next week. Winter could be saved!?!
  15. WxUSAF
    Another local TV met teams outlook that I think is supposed to message “above normal” snow (because this is, strictly, for DC alone) and ends up being slightly below normal to well below normal for most of the rest of the area.
  16. WxUSAF
    Euro also with a chilly airmass next week. Friday’s rain chances do seem mostly dead unfortunately.
  17. WxUSAF
    Probably but not sure
  18. WxUSAF
    I’m mostly a novice at this, but seems the -PDO numerical index is mostly driven by the very warm water off Japan, right? The SST map on our side of the dateline looks weakly +PDO to me with slight AN SSTs along the west coast and in the GoA.
  19. WxUSAF
    Warm/cool/warm pattern in North Atlantic SSTs is allegedly correlated with -NAO
  20. WxUSAF
    GEFS has flipped back once again to strong coupled +PNA/-EPO for Thanksgiving. The -EPO part has been quite consistent, but the pattern along the west coast has been flopping back and forth. Compare today and yesterdays 12z runs: GFS op and GGEM both have some very chilly airmasses for next week as well. Hopefully we can get the far N/W crew a slushy dusting out of this and save winter!
  21. WxUSAF
    The War on Unbridled Enthusiasm season starts earlier each year!
  22. WxUSAF
    35 at DCA. Maybe a chance in a week?
  23. WxUSAF
    28. Coldest of the season.
  24. WxUSAF
    Nino^
  25. WxUSAF
    Sports are stupid
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