WxUSAF
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Seems likely we will end the month BN in temps and AN in precip at all the airports. All with a T or less of frozen precip. Woof.
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If we can see the other side of the warm/relax period by the time we get to the warm/relax period, then I'll be pretty satisfied. Long way off, but seems there's a chance of that.
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Agreed. Solid second best
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18z hrrr says 1F IMBY early Saturday. I’ll take the over. Any single digit temp would be very impressive without snow cover. February 2019 was the last single digit temp at BWI and that did come with a light snow cover.
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12z GEFS looks pretty good. Ridging back along the west coast of Canada by the end, but will take some time to flush out the puke.
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Some sleet mixed in with the rain in laurel as I drive to work
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GFS and long range hrrr holding onto snow behind the front tomorrow. Euro has flakes to a dusting north of DC.
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I don’t think so. More that the Niña is not as coupled to the atmospheric pattern right now. That coupling or lack of can be a persistent feature or it can be transient. This Niña is dying but not dead yet, so I’d expect it to exert some influence still but can’t say when.
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29 at midnight, now 34/29. What time does my surprise snowstorm start?
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Gfs is folding on the anafrontal snow
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Euro wants nothing to do with post frontal snow unfortunately. About a 20F temp drop in 6 hours per euro, and 30F in 12 hours.
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It is. Not sure I’m going to believe it until the snow is falling though. p.s. if you look though, gfs may be slowly backing down on the amount of precipitation behind the front over the last 4-5 runs.
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Was thinking this the other day and some Twitter Mets have been posting about it now, but the “relax” period around new years is basically a canonical super El Niño pattern. Pretty odd in the midst of a 3rd year La Niña. As that big AK/NPac trough rotates back west toward the Aleutians and Kamchatka, the PNA and EPO ridge will go back up and we’ll chill back down. Very Nino-like evolution. No pattern has been locking in for very long (clearly…), so I imagine we’ll have opportunities by/after Jan 7-10.
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12z NAM is mostly upper 30s ahead of the front. Almost cold enough that the frontal rain line is frozen… freezing level around 925mb.
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It’s gonna snow
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How else can you summarize the synoptic environment that led up to the event and describe those 2 runs of the Eta that teased us with 2-4” forecasts before the NGM schooled it at 36 hours out?
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@psuhoffmanremembers
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Enjoy! Chilly evening. We like it even though it can be crowded.
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So I guess we got that going for us?
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Got some Troegs blizzard of hops tonight. Will save for a snowy day…Friday??
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HM trying to steal @CAPE’s storm…smdh
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Euro with a weak scraper. Gives cape cod some light snow. Closer to the GGEM than gfs certainly.
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GGEM has the coastal next week…
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Actually…maybe yes on a -20F day if GFS is right on here
