WxUSAF
-
Posts
26,466 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by WxUSAF
-
Looking at @PrinceFrederickWx’s stats in the panic room makes me more dubious about some sort of early snow = snowy winter correlation. And even if there is a correlation, I’m dubious it’s indicative of the whole season. I just think in snowy years it snows more often and with heavier falls. And even that isn’t a super strong guide. This year probably isn’t going to be a 09-10 redux just because that was at least 1 in 150 year event, not because we had an inch December 5, 2009. A couple of the best analogs to this year had AN snowfall, but concentrated in a fairly epic 2-4 weeks. I still personally think we all get on the board this month at least once, but the bulk of the snow, no matter how much we get, is pretty sure to be in January and February (as it almost always is).
-
Still a chance for Hoffman to get his 1”!
-
Solar forcing going to be crappy for another few years. Might want to look forward to like 30-31.
-
Maybe we can squeeze something in during late January/early February before the inevitable Nino March torch??
-
That said…I do think the MJO and strat vortex disruption imply cold will get here at some point. And I think some of that should start to be seen the second half of this month. Of course JB’s analogs are always loltastic.
-
JB’s been saying that since the 70s
-
Maybe some members trying to kill the MJO prematurely in phase 6 or 7 vs continuing into 7-8-1? Dunno, just guessing/grasping at straws. Strat PV orientation doesn’t seem to jive with cold air in western North America, so not sure what would produce that.
-
Pretty gross look at the end of all 3 ensemble systems. Hope they’re either wrong or that’s a transient look.
-
Acceptable
-
Well the mean temps shows it has been colder on balance. November 22 just had a more intense, but short, cold period to end the month. I think it’s probably true that the suburbs and rural areas have had more subfreezing days so far.
-
10 freezing or sub freezing lows at BWI to date, which is actually 1 behind 2022. But 2022 had an average November low temp of 40.1 compared to this years 35.2.
-
Happy winter!
-
One of the potential wild cards this winter was the very high stratospheric water vapor from the Hunga Tonga eruption. Water vapor strongly emits thermal IR radiation, which serves to cool the atmosphere in the winter stratosphere where little or no sunlight reaches. So potentially, that could lead to a colder and stronger strat winter polar vortex, that if coupled with the troposphere, would encourage +AO. Obviously it’s early, but the strat vortex is going to be quite weak most likely at least well into December and potentially beyond.
-
2023 Mid-Atlantic Garden, Lawn, and Other Green Stuff Thread
WxUSAF replied to mattie g's topic in Mid Atlantic
Did my final mow/leaf mulching this evening. Got it nice and short so next week's HECS looks primo! -
Loudon and Mt. PSU bullseye at happy hour
-
Whole winter depends on it, but yeah, no pressure.
-
12z euro digs the shortwave quite a bit more than 0z. 0z gave us a little snow/mix with the low itself, but kept it all very progressive. 12z is really pretty close to the GFS. GFS just manages to get a little more neutral tilt. Looks like Ukie is maybe focusing on a different shortwave so it’s slower with the progression?
-
We want that ridge standing straight N-S and not rolling over quickly. That’s the danger to watch for. It’s forecast for December 6th
-
Supposed to be flying back to DC in the middle of that epic winter-saving early season SECS. Time to rebook?
-
Icon is a slightly weaker version of the GFS. GGEM trough stays too progressive and positively tilted, maybe show showers for some.
-
This is all connected of course. Models always bias MJO waves to dissipate too quickly. Moving through 7-8-1-2 from mid-December to early January with the cold air on our side of the globe and a very weak strat PV is an enticing combination. And throw in a Nino STJ.
-
Low of 27. After yesterday, BWI is exactly “normal” on the month for temps and IAD, DCA and RIC are very slightly below normal (-0.1 - -0.3F). Today should end up slightly below normal temps as well.
-
High of 40 and low of 23 at BWI today. Only 6 days in November 2022-March 2023 were as cold or colder by mean daily temperature.
-
We don’t HAVE to have below normal temps to get snow. Just trickier without it.
-
“usually” what happens is that all those features (NPac trough and western ridge) are west of those positions leading into the storm and then they roll east with the big storm.
