WxUSAF

@brooklynwx99 yes, lots more N stream phasing on GEFS. Confluence maybe a hair better than 6z, bit worse than 0z.

Sloppy phase that’s too late and too far north and east. Hence the 850 low/trough is NW of us.

It’s not going to be 10:1 ratios, but the gfs has a solid burst for N/NE MD. It would be a couple inches at least.

Precip and thermals are intimately connected here. Heavier precipitation = more evaporational and dynamical cooling = more snow. Light precip won’t cut it.

This is kinda a combo of what I mentioned this am with the 6z gfs. Some 50-50 and some northern stream phasing. But as you can see, it’s still not quite enough for us.

This is actually the best/closest solution gfs has yet had for this storm.

Best confluence over the NE in several runs actually. Sorta bootleg, but there is a defined 50-50 through 150hrs.

GFS would definitely get areas north of DC on the board. I’ll take it.

Kaiser has some bootleg confluence that pushes it south of its 0z solution. Not the pig 50-50 low we need here, but better.

I’d wag ratios would be like 5-6:1 in places that are cold enough to accumulate. White rain in warmer spots.

A strong 50-50 low providing timely confluence and cold air is the most obvious path to a majority frozen event for us. I think 6z gfs teased another path, but one with a lot more difficulty. Guidance has waffled on whether any northern stream energy phases into our big southern stream shortwave. 6z gfs phases it in somewhat late and in a sloppy manner. IF you can get that phase timed just right with just the right low location, it could supply some cold air. But that’s obviously a Hail Mary sort of option.

GEFS mean looks pretty good, but despite the much improved 50-50 low depiction, actually seems like there are more cutters in the individual members based on my eyeballing relative to previous runs today.

The ensemble mean consistently outperforms the Op model beyond about D4. But doesn’t mean that’s 100% true. If the Op runs remain outliers around D5, I’d start to wonder if it’s on to something.

As @brooklynwx99 and @AtlanticWx have said, more confluence over the northeast and a taller Rockies ridge this GEFS run. But also more hints of phasing in northern stream energy around D6-7.

Down to 49. Damn near October out there right now!

As @brooklynwx99 said, a couple things a little better, couple little worse. At D9 it’s basically a hold on it’s crappy solution.

GFS has less confluence in the northeast than it did at 12z

Line of showers (storms?) getting close. After jogging outside in shorts and a T-shirt, feels like May!

GEFS/EPS/Euro combo is a pretty solid team. Just need it to hold for awhile.

This is obviously still a D9 event with all associated caveats, but as we’ve seen today, what happens around the 10-12th is critical to setting up confluence and any semblance of a workable airmass. That shortwave actually enters the CONUS over California in 72 hours! Here it is north of San Francisco. 24 hours later it’s out over the Plains. At the same time, the piece of the PV it merges with is swinging south on the west edge of Hudson Bay. So the table setters, so to speak, are not far off.

@psuhoffman fringed on a D9 coastal? Oh yeah, this is the one

Lol, Op GFS goes one way and GEFS actually goes toward more of a southern slider without turning up the coast. Weeeeee…

Not much water vapor has gotten into the northern hemisphere and basically none got into the northern stratosphere winter PV. So if there is any connection, I think it’s subtle and through some other feedback.

Someone else will have to check the digital blue report, but I like the surface and H5 evolution so far through hr192.