WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Southern parts of the area may end up doing better with this morning stuff than northern areas do later?
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Fantasy range, but yeah, some fun looks showing up after PD in @psuhoffmans window
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Bleh…overnight runs not very exciting. Temp got down to 28, 31 now.
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AI buries us apparently? Where you at @mitchnick? On a different note, keep in mind this deamplification trend may be starting for the Thursday and weekend storms next week already…
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When you’re pushing 30-40/hour and most are 1 word, might be time to put the phone down
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I’ll take it. All my events for tomorrow have been cancelled so I’m free to count every sleet pellet.
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How did euro look?
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HH GFS has the @psuhoffman Storm
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If you believe in seasonal trends, and I do, then one this year is mid range deamplification. Certainly been true for this weekends event. Probably linked to blocking verifying stronger at shorter lead times. For this event, I think we’re seeing that manifest as lower MECS potential, but also less mixing risk in metro areas. That deamp trend also hasn’t persisted until game time. This is also relevant for any follow on waves next week I think.
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EPS is solid. 5-6” metros and vicinity.
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Winter uncancel
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No I got you. I think big variations in snow are coming down to relatively small variations in shortwave amplitude in this scenario because of what a good moisture feed is present.
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There’s plenty of moisture available. Pretty small differences in shortwave amplitude are giving us large variations in potential snowfall.
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Yeah euro/3k NAM blend is a notable event for most of MD and NoVA
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Ukie is a beatdown. 13” for DC. No mixing north of EZF.
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Turns the corner too quick. Snow to rain. Tons of potential the next 10+ days. Blocking “should” help push some south of us.
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Fantasy range, but man it may be cooking…
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1-3” north of DC Thursday am on gfs before rain?
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More defined/consolidated vort on GGEM relative to 0z.
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Beautiful run. That 2nd burst overnight Wednesday is colder aloft. Deeper DGZ. Would be some nice fluff.
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Looks juicy to me but maybe timing differences
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Hmmm Nevermind. Pivotal disagreeing. Was using snow depth on TT and even that is corrupted it seems.
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Legit 1” of snow+sleet. 2” over near @CAPE.
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Since the timing of this event got honed in, I think a broad 4-8” for EZF and points north has been a reasonable forecast. Nothing that I see right now would change that.
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Snow and ice don’t count if there isn’t an advisory or warning
