WxUSAF

GGEM has a 4 county wide blizzard and gfs has a January hurricane. Your move, euro!

As good as the chiefs are, I think the afc comes down to the bills and bengals.

Agreed. Gives a shadow of a hope next week if the offense is healthy and somewhat functional.

Ravens might lose by 30+

If we get that tall coupled PNA and EPO ridge, it will build homegrown cold. It’s just physics. No WAA off the PAC coupled with low sun angle and radiating snow cover. Question is how fast and then how long to transport it south. You can probably do some sort of back of the envelope calculation on this… My intuition is something like 4-8 days to regenerate at least normal if not BN temps in central Canada, then another 3-5 days for southward transport. So if that ridge does develop with a trough in the east, maybe 6-7 days at least before you can fully flush the mild air out?

My eyeball 2C is that the GEFS has done very well with the longwave pattern beyond D8 this winter. Even better than the EPS several times. But the euro suite is absolutely kicking the GFS/GEFS ass with individual storms inside of D7-8.

Low of 26.

Low of 33. Will be at least January 8 before it gets below freezing IMBY in 2023.

Still a very Nino look. What a strange year.

18z NAM and 4 drinks and I feel a lot more zen about the euro/eps

HoCo deathband!!!

Damn…3k is sexy. I’m staying up late if that’s right so I can measure my max accumulation right before it starts to melt.

I think this conversation is heading in directions that aren’t relevant to this thread or subforum quickly.

Good lord. Show me this image and tell me it’s mid-January with no other context and I’d get a @stormtrackeresque poke-your-own-eye-out pants tent.

Sweet Jesus. Beating a dead horse here, but 12z eps has a 999mb low off Ocean City on the mean next Saturday! Damn perfection! Warm rain.

EPS playing follow the leader, at least in part. Whelp…12z started so well.

Thunderstorms to Montreal in mid January would be something.

I’m tossing it into the sun. Euro went from the most confluence to the least in a day.

Lol this is going to be a pretty huge swing from it’s 0z run

Euro remains pretty unenthusiastic. Just less precip so warmer solution.

Sure is. Which is why I’m glad to see a defined 850 low in a good spot for us on the GEFS. Your point about the airmass is well taken. Only way we improve that is if we go back to the pig 50-50 pushing in a fresh airmass ahead like we’ve seen on a couple Op runs. Otherwise it’s going to be trash. Question is if it’s just tolerable enough…I’d wager if we get an exact GEFS solution with a wound up low, we’d mostly frozen.

Yyyuuppp

Probably the best op GFS and GEFS run yet either way. GGEM was close and I don’t hate the crazy Ukie as it ends either.

Yyyeeeaaahhh…probably a lot of 31-34F verbatim. If we had a strong low take that exact track, it might be *just* cold enough. Don’t want that thing to stall and rot though like the op gfs.

It is. Freaking classic. Just a shit airmass so unsure if we can get enough cold air to take advantage of it.