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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    I think you nailed it recently when you said we’ve seen the character of this winter. It ain’t good. But we could still blunder into something other than a total dead ratter. Cold air nearby and an active pattern hopefully gives us chances, even if the dominant p-type is rain. Need timing and a bit of luck.
  2. WxUSAF
    For illustrative purposes…when you have cold air masses available to tap, you can get good outcomes.
  3. WxUSAF
    Flurries! 33.6F
  4. WxUSAF
    Actually…I think the ensembles have done very well with the longwave pattern past D8 this year. This storm and the offshore development was suggested in general form out to like D14. Next pattern change, assuming it happens will also be like a D14-15 length call.
  5. WxUSAF
    For 1 run at least, definitely a solid step toward the EPS/GEPS look, which is way more favorable for us.
  6. WxUSAF
    EPS not folding. Maybe a suggestion of some members being more GEFS-like around D10 with troughing over the SW and northern Mexico? But lots of ridging along the west coast generally.
  7. WxUSAF
    That wave around the 21-22nd seems like it’s the first with any sort of prayer for some frozen precipitation. The huge differences between the GEFS and GEPS (and hopefully still the EPS) today are not that far off…like D7-8 there are major differences in the way they handle the western ridge and CONUS trough.
  8. WxUSAF
    I love cats!
  9. WxUSAF
    @mitchnick probably remembers
  10. WxUSAF
    Alright. Enough snow climo and climate change for now please. Digital blue on the gfs, check it out!
  11. WxUSAF
    My 2C is that even with trends being what they are, we will still get snow here, still have occasional big storms, and still have nice winters here for many many years to come. Will they be as frequent as I’d like or as before? Doubtful. But I don’t expect them to go extinct. And so I’ll keep watching and waiting.
  12. WxUSAF
    Don’t know. A lot of un-Niña like behavior so far for sure. Some folks seem convinced we we get the canonical February Niña look, which is not a good one for us. Others think the weakening Niña will keep things unusual. Throw in some signs of the strat PV getting disrupted and will be interesting. Hopefully we can claw out of a position where this winter is one of those we don’t speak about in polite company.
  13. WxUSAF
    Look out the window! We just had gusty showers with temps in the 50s!
  14. WxUSAF
    60 more winter-ish days to go!!
  15. WxUSAF
    In any of the longwave patterns depicted, if they remain as active as advertised with cold air nearby at least, you’d think we’d almost have to stumble into either a front end snow to ice/rain deal or a follow up wave running the boundary. Those are bread and butter events for us and this will be happening at peak climo… can’t totally fail…right??
  16. WxUSAF
    EPS and GEPS still look quite favorable. GEFS never moves the trough east of the Rockies and the SE ridge flexes. Differences are only in the D9-11 range too, so we should start to see some convergence in the next couple days? I think the GEFS evolution makes sense eventually where it goes toward a more canonical Niña pattern…but hopefully rushing it?
  17. WxUSAF
    Fyi…posts we hide don’t get moved often because it’s impossible on mobile and a PITA on a computer.
  18. WxUSAF
    Yes. Placement of that ridge is very important. Definitely risks of cold dry/warm wet if the ridge axis is farther west. But if that ridge stays along the coast and we keep the very active pattern that’s ahead, odds are good we’d get some hits.
  19. WxUSAF
    @TSG that was a great post and please copy it over to the CC subforum. We’re going to try and keep that conversation there though.
  20. WxUSAF
    All 3 ensemble suites show the broader longitudinal trough underneath a growing -NAO late in their runs. Coupled with a -EPO/-AO, that’s a very nice look as you said. But the GEFS especially keeps that ridge farther off the west coast, which would generate more cutters before that point. And if the -NAO didn’t develop, the SE ridge would pop quickly. GEPS and EPS keep more ridging along the west coast which is far better for us.
  21. WxUSAF
    I’d be a little surprised if something worked out around the 21st, but not shocked and euro shows that.
  22. WxUSAF
    Haven’t seen the GEPS, but hopefully it has that western ridge more onshore. GEFS keeps wobbling it west which will frustrate us.
  23. WxUSAF
    I think you’re looking at 6z, but the point is still valid. An active pattern gives us that many more rolls of the dice. There just probably still be more cutters than people want… I think we go from “guaranteed shutout” to “non-zero chance” after the 20th, then chances hopefully get a little better with each subsequent wave.
  24. WxUSAF
    Each of the 3 ensemble systems did something at the very end of their runs last night that I really liked. Way out there, but what else is there to talk about? They all pull a piece of the trop PV underneath the strong -AO and growing east based -NAO with a broad trough in eastern north America. And here the remnant WAR/SE ridge is still helpful to keep the storm track nearby. I like it a lot.
  25. WxUSAF
    Exactly! MAJOR pattern change!
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