WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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BAMWx and Webb already see the backside of the good pattern before it gets here. If it gets here…
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Low of 22. I’ve had a number of low 20s this season so far, but haven’t hit the teens yet.
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I am too. Next week looks super messy, but there’s still some paths to some frozen with that. But beyond that is when our options open up dramatically. I think by this weekend we’ll at least have an idea of a time window for a discreet threat.
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Oh LAWD she comin’!
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From @griteater
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Just loop the H5 plot of the gfs and there are soooo many shortwaves. Northern and southern stream. Going to get lots of solutions, but does seem like we’re in the game. As I said before though, we need more energy in a storm around the 26th to bring in cooler air earlier. Otherwise we have to wait until after the 28/29th for a workable airmass.
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If you measured everything, I assume you’d be around 5” for the year to date?
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My qualitative intuition for late next week is that we need the energy to split and not be consolidated. We need a stronger cutter on the 26/27th to pull in at least less mild air and then a weaker low passing to our south on the 28-30th. Right now it’s all a jumbled mess on guidance with a bunch of shortwaves all over as previous posts have shown.
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Zero impact
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It’s true that we don’t often cash in at the beginning of a good pattern. And I still think anything before 2024 is probably a mixed event or a light event outside the far N/W burbs and mountains. That’s fine for me! But we are (still for now) not charlotte NC or something. We don’t need cross polar flow, some epic -NAO, or Michigan to be buried in snow to have a chance. We don’t even need below normal temps!
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That’s a good change, but a stronger storm in the plains is not. Need a weak slider for a lot of us to get a majority frozen event at that time.
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I’m fully serious when I say I expect that fairly soon he will be saying that the MJO is going to move through 8-1-2 TOO FAST, despite him confidently asserting before that it would get stuck in 5-6-7.
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Need to see individuals as temps are still warmish, but I’d take my chances here.
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Fun gfs run. Nice to start seeing fantasy snow.
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D10-15 pattern looks good but we can see the back edge already
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Mitchell is/was so explosive. Tough to lose him for the season. If that ravens can beat the dolphins and Steelers, they should be the #1 seed.
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It’s 384hr so obviously not saying that’s going to happen precisely, but that scenario IS exactly what that sort of longwave pattern can produce. That’s the cold area wide 3-6/4-8” type deal.
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Dang I hope we get a radar look like this again this winter with a temp about 30F colder
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Steve Milloy ain’t happening
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I also prefer colder rain
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My wag is that we get a nice period from post-Xmas to Jan 10-14 or so. Then a reset for a week or two, then hopefully a real heater from late Jan to mid February. We’ll see.
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Visibility under 1/4mi
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@Ralph Wiggum…that longwave pattern argues for weaker progressive waves. Everything is positively tilted with an eastward lean. That’s good for us, there’s no deep cold air yet so we need something that doesn’t wrap in a bunch of warm air. Just need a weak wave sliding to our south and hopefully there’s a band of snow on the north side.
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42 with fog. This is the 09-10 winter of fog.
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Dang…that’s really nice. 6z gfs with snow to rain in that period.
