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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    The durable -NAO isn’t crazy. Ensembles keep correcting to more -NAO in the long range the last several days and in theory a strat PV disruption would reinforce it as well.
  2. WxUSAF
    Exactly! SSWs never fail!
  3. WxUSAF
    That OC selection will say a lot about what they want to do with Lamar. Lot of folks speculating on internal promotion.
  4. WxUSAF
    That’s not that far off from what we’re getting in the week ahead. Just with less WAR I guess. Smarch is coming to save winter 22-23!
  5. WxUSAF
    We have a thread for this!!
  6. WxUSAF
    Agreed. I don’t think there’s enough runway left to get to a solution that gives frozen precipitation to the metro corridor. Far N/W still in the game for something.
  7. WxUSAF
    She has rain/snow for Sunday and next Wednesday with temps above freezing. Was emphasizing far N/W for Sunday obviously
  8. WxUSAF
    I’ll just blame the Ukie’s generally poor thermals
  9. WxUSAF
    That’s either a very nice solution for us or one for @psuhoffmans notebook.
  10. WxUSAF
    Schizophrenia
  11. WxUSAF
    FWIW based on track alone, crazy uncle Ukie seems to be on a favorable camp for Sunday/Monday.
  12. WxUSAF
    Euro’s a good hit for far N/W Sunday and already looking very different for the next week storm.
  13. WxUSAF
    There have been plenty of signs in op runs and ensembles that we probably get a respectable arctic push from this pattern and both GGEM and GFS show it today. That probably means cold/dry for a couple days outside snow showers with the arctic front. Question then becomes if we can throw some moisture back over the cold air as the TPV retreats back to Canada.
  14. WxUSAF
    Yeah, pretty big shift. Don’t think I’ve seen substantial digital blue for us within 100 hours yet this winter before today lol.
  15. WxUSAF
    Kaiser starts off 12z well. Key to a coastal track seems to be a more northern stream dominated shortwave as 6z gfs and 12z icon show.
  16. WxUSAF
    Good pull but let’s PLEASE not go down this path again in this thread
  17. WxUSAF
    Guess we’ll be having our vodka warm
  18. WxUSAF
    Fuck you gfs
  19. WxUSAF
    I saw the EPS snow map elsewhere and it’s probably the best I’ve seen since December? 6-7” for Harrisburg ranging down to ~3” for DC.
  20. WxUSAF
    Weird evolution for the 25-26, but damn close to a MECS
  21. WxUSAF
    Front end slop Sunday
  22. WxUSAF
    As @Bob Chill mentioned, the trend seems to be our friend in the ensembles for the period starting next week. Less SE ridge, more PNA and NAO ridging.
  23. WxUSAF
    Scenic sunrise alert
  24. WxUSAF
    My daffodils on the warm side of my house are 1-3” tall. Gonna be a chickweed apocalypse if we don’t get a cold couple weeks this month and February.
  25. WxUSAF
    At this point, I’d give less than 50/50 odds Lamar is a raven by fall.
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