I agree to 72 hours or so, but there also is a tendency for follow the leader with the ops and ensembles lately. Maybe someone like @high risk or @dtk can speak to studies of how nondispersive they seem to be in recent years.
This is not a HECS setup by any means. Just isn't. Too progressive, not deep enough, etc. Could be a very nice event for someone, certainly the best in literally years, but it's not a HECS.
I like seeing wider goalposts honestly. The more paths to some sort of event the better. Meanwhile GGEM goes the opposite direction and phases it in much earlier and hence a more inland track and just rain for the 95 corridor.