Snow depth is good to check against in marginal situations like this but I’m not sure I’ve ever seen actually accumulations that match snow depth forecasts. Even the December post-deluge changeover beat the snow depths by like a factor of 2.
Next tuesdays cutter sets the thermal boundary for any follow up waves. GGEM makes that boundary much more favorable and has been consistently more friendly than the gfs. But gfs isn’t too far off… Late next week is still a time to watch closely.
Under my new “I’ll take anything measurable” criteria for storm success, IMBY, I’ll take the gfs in a hot second. Far N/W folks probably like it a lot less though as it trims precip totals for the mountains.
I’m taking the TT 3k NAM 10:1 snowmap as my final call, no takebacks, all in.
In reality, it does show about 4 hours of pretty heavy snow from 16-20z IMBY. If that did happen…
Ha, I was literally coming to say that, for illustrative purposes, this is a potential big dog look. PV trapped under the -NAO with a strong southern stream wave forced to move W-E across the conus with arctic air locked in.
Bummer. Good luck far N/W folks! This doesn’t look like the one that’s going to break the record long streak without 1” of snow for any of DC-Baltimore-Philly-NYC. Maybe IAD still has a chance?
I guess. I think by 0z or 12z tomorrow the synoptic details are down to noise level changes and it just comes down to a few degrees in the 800mb to surface column. 18z is very slightly colder than 12z at 0z Sunday. Sharper temp gradient too. Still thumpy to start in the 18-21z period Saturday.
Yeah quite possible. That said, if it’s borderline, still could work out. But the confluence and high shifting north don’t provide much confidence things can shift. Could also be a precip rate dependent deal. Heavier precip progs might be colder and vice versa. Things to watch.
Yeah, that’s why I was cautiously optimistic as the run developed. Then it just pushes warm air north with that trough. Maybe it’s real, maybe a fluke.
That inverted trough (trowal maybe?) is sort of the killer. Not sure how real that feature is. I actually though euro looked decent/good before it got to us.
Then you’re in much better shape than the cities. I know the urban core of Towson can be warm though, so that’s something to watch as you get familiar with the microclimates in the area.