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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Devil is in the details of how the shortwaves interact and phase. Weaker northern stream energy seems to hurt as compared to some snowier solutions.
  2. WxUSAF
    This trend seems good to me
  3. WxUSAF
    Wasn’t 6z GEFS and 0z euro some of the best runs we’ve seen? Lol. Let’s not get nuts here.
  4. WxUSAF
    Yeah, GEFS has caved to the EPS/GEPS look as @psuhoffman predicted.
  5. WxUSAF
    Thanks chief. I’m driving to your yard and stealing all your snow on Sunday morning.
  6. WxUSAF
    Yeah I’ve noticed that the storm for tomorrow and Thursday has trended south and weaker. There’s probably a balance here if the same thing happens with the weekend storm. South is good for us generally, but weaker is maybe a double edged sword. Weak and north is bad because it doesn’t wrap in colder air, but maybe weaker and south balances that back out? Just speculation. Nobody should be spiking footballs or bailing on 1 run 100+ hours out.
  7. WxUSAF
    Even if this storm “fails” from a snow perspective in the cities, this is just a remarkable modeling success from literally 13-15 days lead time. We picked up this time period as soon as it was in ensemble range.
  8. WxUSAF
    P.s. banter-type posts will get hidden with more regularity here
  9. WxUSAF
    Storm thread been given. God help us all.
  10. WxUSAF
    I’ll fall on the sword when guidance unanimously goes to Cleveland at 12z.
  11. WxUSAF
    Haven’t been to Barcelona, but I love Spain. It’s wrongly way too low on American’s European travel destinations.
  12. WxUSAF
    I saw the euro before this and was kinda confused
  13. WxUSAF
    Don’t know if we go there yet, but more zero value added posts will go away?
  14. WxUSAF
    Happy happy hour!
  15. WxUSAF
    I think you’re on the right track @psuhoffman. Our big dogs often don’t have a monster PNA ridge, the biggest anomalies are the NAO/AO ridging usually. So if that shortwave you’ve indicated rolls east with the ridge behind it…it would look like a lot of our KU patterns.
  16. WxUSAF
    What’s nice to see is that the guidance is getting more uniform with a respectable high and confluence to our north. Makes the airmass much less marginal heading into the weekend. Euro has lows in the low 20s Friday morning with dews in the low-mid 10s. Mid 20s Saturday morning. @clskinsfan mentioned this above. Differences in the solutions now seem more on how the 2 shortwaves interact.
  17. WxUSAF
    Some OH valley low still in this run vs almost 100% coastal low at 0z. Hence warmer for coastal plain areas.
  18. WxUSAF
    41 and some sprinkles in Columbia
  19. WxUSAF
    Lucky for us in the mid-Atlantic, our freakouts automatically regenerate so we can’t run out
  20. WxUSAF
    I agree to 72 hours or so, but there also is a tendency for follow the leader with the ops and ensembles lately. Maybe someone like @high risk or @dtk can speak to studies of how nondispersive they seem to be in recent years.
  21. WxUSAF
    Thanks stupid apple weather app for saying there’s a ridiculous 80% chance of snow Sunday, so I have to listen to my kids pester me all week.
  22. WxUSAF
    This is not a HECS setup by any means. Just isn't. Too progressive, not deep enough, etc. Could be a very nice event for someone, certainly the best in literally years, but it's not a HECS.
  23. WxUSAF
    I like seeing wider goalposts honestly. The more paths to some sort of event the better. Meanwhile GGEM goes the opposite direction and phases it in much earlier and hence a more inland track and just rain for the 95 corridor.
  24. WxUSAF
    Interesting...it doesn't quite phase all the way unlike previous runs. Close, but not quite.
  25. WxUSAF
    I agree with Webb and @psuhoffman here that this thing is likely to inch northward in the last 72-96 hours.
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