WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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I saw a January 2022 H5 chart today. Looked a lot like our upcoming pattern to my eyes and I would jump at a January 2022 redux…
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It was key in 2013-14, which is getting tossed around a lot as an analog. WAR/SER was over us a lot, but with the arctic air to our northwest, we cashed in over and over.
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Yeah GEFS seems to be waffling in the EPO domain more than EPS. But I actually like how GEFS and GEPS (to a lesser degree) show a WAR building in late in the run. That could help push the storm track back closer.
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Are you talking about the euro op or eps? If it’s the op, who cares? If it’s the eps, that would be a drastic change from the 0z run. But I always bet on a Xmas week torch. Easy money.
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Also showing some action around the 7th. Same time as euro op more or less.
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GEFS has a little intrigue for next Sunday. Ops all show the wave, but mostly shear it apart.
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Low of 34 with patchy frost
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11/22: 0.2”
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^7” for MBY through January 8. Again probably slightly above normal. but if snowiest week is second week of December, that’s an encouraging sign for how we’re viewing the pattern evolution.
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Yes. FWIW (not much), JB tweeted the euro weekly snow map through Xmas. Looked like basically 3-6” for the general metro area. That’s probably slightly above normal for the first 3.5 weeks of December.
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But Daniels got me 41.4 fantasy points so appreciate that!
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Lol commies omg
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We want that trough axis to our west though, not over us. But that’s the type of thing that can happen with specific shortwaves rather than a longwave average.
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Not sure if something like a “decade trend” exists, but what few respectable storms we’ve had in the last 5 years have mostly been northern stream storms that moistened up in the 3-4 days before they hit. From range they all looked like weak sauce flurries.
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Ah, tis the season for Will to post maps showing me with a 1-5% chance of snow between now and ragnarok.
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Agreed, not sure there’s a legit path to victory. Only thing I can imagine is if it splits into two storms, with the first one strong enough to pull just enough cold air behind it so a weaker second storm (thanksgiving night or Friday) can throw us some light snow. But I haven’t seen that on any guidance as even a one off solution.
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If it was January or February, we’d be looking at 10s for highs and lows near 0 probably, even without snowcover. I’ll be quite impressed if we get a sub-freezing high out of the first week of December. Very impressed if DCA manages that, but I’d bet against it.
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Cold and dry is always a risk. But in early December we need some pretty anomalous cold to have a shot at widespread snow. Daily avg temp is still in the 40-43F range the first week of the month. If 1989 is a good analog to this upcoming period, there should be storms. Just hope we have better luck this time.
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All 3 ensembles keep the PNA/EPO/WPO ridging going strong at D15. Cross polar flow the whole time.
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1989 is not remembered fondly around here because we missed some big storms north and south. But there was some snow and it was damn cold. Could have been pretty epic with subtle changes. Let’s just hope we don’t get January-February 1990…
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In my yard, all the accumulation was between 1030 and 1115. As soon as it lightened up after that, it melted immediately. The snow before 1030 helped cool the surface and the air temp enough. So I was down to 33-33.5 or so when it accumulated. -
Hope you northern folks can tack on some more as the sun sets! Our winter depends on it!
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-RASN now. Temp up to 36.7
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GGEM has snow inbound at D10 with super-Barney (-30F and colder) moving into the northern Plains
