WxUSAF

Have you tried their new taco menu? I thought they were decent.

That February pattern looks like shit the blinds, but if Arctic air is entrenched to our NW, we can get some CAD events.

I think the dry is going to remain stubborn until next spring-ish. And if we get a wet winter month it’s probably going to be mild overall. Just the nature of La Niña.

For the moment it seems that the best pattern is not going to be Thanksgiving weekend, which as I’ve said, is a-ok with me. Much rather the second or third week of December and that seems to be the flavor of the long range guidance right now. That’s what @griteaterhas been saying as well.

Nearest PWS got to 29

^yeah, GEFS and EPS both have a strong +PNA/-EPO developing around Thanksgiving with our -NAO fading away. My instinct is that the PNA+EPO ridging is more useful for our early season snow chances since it’s a more effective cold air delivery mechanism and we need more anomalous BN temps in early December to snow.

Anecdotal and vibes-based, but it seems like since August we’ve been trending cooler at short and mid-ranges in contrast to what seems like always betting warm. Next week potentially looking quite chilly now. Mid-month torch that was expected has been muted/deleted for sure.

Another good thread from @griteater. 2017 was the last year we had even respectable December snowfall.

I think we’re in the stage where the temp is still 38 and we’re supposed to be at freezing by now

CME is hitting but its magnetic field is positive for now. We want strongly negative for the best show.

41 today

Not loving these persistent clouds

12z mesos look dicey on central Md cloud cover. Better for NoVA and southern MD.

Not sure international returns? Think you have to take that absurd contraption back to the cattle call customs line.