WxUSAF

3k was still a huge jump north and expansion of the precip field

Models fully account for precip evaporating or subliming during descent.

Let’s pull off a 1/30/10

Seems like with the 18z runs we finally have some consensus, it’s just consensus on dusting-1” for the majority of us instead of the 1-3” we were hoping for. That shortwave is trending stronger so maybe we can juice this up some more. Or rely on 20:1 ratios??

18z rgem was also north. It more clearly is loosening the confluence vs recent runs. Can we sustain some positive trends for more than 1 cycle now?

And much juicier down south. @Bob Chillgonna need to put the plow on his tractor.

Click through the previous 5-6 GFS runs and you can see our shortwave gets much sharper and better defined. Confluence is bouncing around more, which isn’t surprising from a more poorly sampled region.

18z icon an ass hair north of 12z. Basically dusting for most of the area. 1” down by EZF. 2-3” for RIC.

18z NBM is north relative to a lot of what we’re looking at it seems

Don’t know why, but I’m feeling really invested in this one lol. We don’t get many chances for cold powder daytime snows, let alone in December. I want something Friday!

A freezing or sub freezing high temp for DCA would be incredibly impressive. That’s like a -20F departure or more.

Well you’re looking at snow depth 2 days later?

Lock that max total stripe in right there!!