WxUSAF

Pretty dismal offense after first drive

You wait and see. Daniel Faalele in the wildcat gonna hit like a D3 Euro KU

Can everyone now please follow @NorthArlington101’s example and continue this fascinating discussion in banter?

GFSAI has some digital blue in fantasy range. Everyone get a little hit to tide you over. First hit is free, then you gotta pay.

First GFS fantasy storm in how many days?? And lookee lookee GEFS looks like euro ai ensembles now.

Couple close calls on euro AI D9+

EPS got colder overnight as well. GFS digging troughs to Mexico City is gone. Just need some fantasy range storms to start popping again.

Maybe a blip, but 6z GEFS is a big change in a more positive direction for us. Much deeper -NAO/-AO and it keeps a trough in the east until the very end of the run, when it’s still a very workable gradient pattern.

Ok enough Hoffman chatter.

Nice! Birdwatching is my big hobby. Was debating driving to Great Falls VA today. Very rare bird there the last 2 days. Red-flanked Bluetail.

His second most recent post is literally “I’m very optimistic for January”

Reduction in soundings should impact all forecasts, but perhaps not equally given different data assimilation methods. Not sure how you’d “normalize” it so to speak, but I think comparing forecast accuracy between winter 24-25 and 25-26 would be a very interesting study.

Uhhh…82-83 had a KU? 14-15 was a very good winter. 97-98 was a blowtorch super Nino. 06-07 and 18-19 were fair to good depending on location.

One thing I’ve noted the last couple days is that the end of the op runs haven’t been looking like the ensemble means. This is @mitchnick’s anecdotal rule. Today there’s better similarity with non-GFS runs having a more or less favorable winter pattern for us D10-15.