WxUSAF

Don’t mind me over here alone in the corner with the FV3

Didn’t the famous Palm Sunday storm have 80s just before and after?

It’s happening. Going 3-5” for MBY. Conservative since it will be 80 today.

Let’s gooooo

Earliest 85F on record for BWI

Mid-long range precip forecasts have taken a notable dive. Starting with Thursday’s rain.

Haven’t even seen a daffodil bloom yet although some will likely in the next couple days. Trees have a LONG way to go. My non-native saucer magnolia, which always blooms absurdly early (and then the blooms often die when we get a freeze), still hasn’t even really started having the buds grow. Hoping it doesn’t get too far this week before we get some hard freezes again.

Going to hit 70+ in most places today

Wedge is breaking!

Waiting for you in mid April

Still a big model battle for wedge-cast tomorrow. Op euro seems alone in busting the wedge by midday tomorrow. AIFS and most other guidance keeps the wedge until close to midnight as @high risk alluded to.

If we were fog weenies, this week would be like Feb 2010

Reality was sort of a blend? Wedge wasn’t as strong as the NAM suggested, but euro was too aggressive eroding it.

GGEM slush MECS next Friday!

Pretty amazing short term forecast differences. 6z euro gets much of NoVA and southern MD into the low 70s this afternoon!! 12z 3k NAM is 15-20F colder!