WxUSAF

Cold air will be dammed between the America mountains and the America bay.

A storm system will enter the coast from the America Ocean, pulling moisture from the Gulf of America. Cold air passing over Lake America will enhance snowfall in the area, battling warm air flowing in from the other America Ocean. The NWS has named this winter storm America.

Nice 9-10”+ rain bullseye for old Ellicott city on the 12z NAM nest

Euro mid range bias and all that, but still. I can’t do this anymore.

Tiny wedge of slight risk of storms for north central MD tomorrow

I was curious about this and went back to check. Fall 2015 was actually dry in the area. Not drastically, but modestly BN each month. So I looked at Fall 1997 and 1982 also. Sept 97 was pretty dry and it got wetter as fall progressed with a wet November. 82 was more of a mixed bag with some variation between the airports but you could say average-ish regionally. For more modest ninos, fall 2018 was a deluge. Fall 2014 slightly dry, fall 2009 mixed month by month, and fall 2002 was wet. So maybe the nino=wet fall correlation is mostly in our heads from more typical ninos. With the tiny sample size of strong/super ninos, a dry September at least would be in-family.

Unfortunately next week is looking hot p.s. After a morning like today I really don’t want to go back…

Uncanny

Cicadas are out and fairly loud today. Maybe the dry start to summer delayed them?

Euros been on that too

Keep thinking about what could have been if they had someone like Pete in 23 and 24

Euro has a brutal cutoff. 1” for Annapolis and DCA. 0.01” for Ellicott city and Westminster.

Well 12z mesos have mostly switched back to pretty rainy. NAM nest is a deluge in the afternoon for the metros.

Overnight guidance really pulled the rug on tonight and tomorrows rain unless you’re on the lower eastern shore

1.25” today