LovintheWhiteFluff

Probably because it's the end of the season with nothing else going on, and we are a board full of weather enthusiasts.

Later in the runs there is a huge high over the eastern part of the US, so it never gets here. Haven't seen the midday Euro yet so can't say anything about that run.

You can see here the path it has been taking and the direction it would need to go to landfall where the center of the cone would be.

Still seems to be generally NNE (edit: last few frames are definitely E) https://www.wfla.com/video/wfla-com-wobble-tracker/adst9VARmWrkeNkr/

Someone posted this yesterday. Gives a great view of the movement. https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/live-wobble-tracker-changes-in-hurricane-miltons-path-could-have-huge-impacts/amp/

I almost sent this out. Lol

963mb is cat 3 pressure.

The second picture is further up the road but it looks bad either way.

The blue house on the weather channel is getting pummeled with waves.

only down 1mb in last 30 minutes, not 4....couple pages back.

I believe it happened once before where they had to fly around in the eye and wait for another mission to look over the aircraft on a flyby because of mechanical issues.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). A weather station at Venice Municipal Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust of 69 mph (111 km/h). Another observation near Venice Beach reported a sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h). https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/262042.shtml Add the NOAA graphic: yellow = TS Force Red = Hurricane Force

This area has cooler water due to more upwelling due to westerly winds. This is what I posted in the Beryl thread. The area extends a bit east of the peninsula and north of it. Throw in some dry air with this and you don't get a lot of deepening. The coastal area north of Yucatan has experienced a cooling SST trend from 1982 to 2015 during the upwelling season (May–September) that contrasts with the warming observed at the adjacent ocean area. Different drivers were analyzed to identify the possible causes of that unusual coastal cooling. Changes in coastal upwelling and in sea-atmosphere heat fluxes are not consistent with the observed coastal cooling. The eastward shift of the Yucatan Current observed over the last decades is hypothesized as the most probable cause of coastal cooling. This shift enhances the vertical transport of cold deeper water to the continental shelf from where it is pumped to the surface by upwelling favorable westerly winds. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0924796317303317#:~:text=The eastward shift of the,by upwelling favorable westerly winds.

The coastal area north of Yucatan has experienced a cooling SST trend from 1982 to 2015 during the upwelling season (May–September) that contrasts with the warming observed at the adjacent ocean area. Different drivers were analyzed to identify the possible causes of that unusual coastal cooling. Changes in coastal upwelling and in sea-atmosphere heat fluxes are not consistent with the observed coastal cooling. The eastward shift of the Yucatan Current observed over the last decades is hypothesized as the most probable cause of coastal cooling. This shift enhances the vertical transport of cold deeper water to the continental shelf from where it is pumped to the surface by upwelling favorable westerly winds. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0924796317303317#:~:text=The%20eastward%20shift%20of%20the,by%20upwelling%20favorable%20westerly%20winds.

26/13/6

Look at the pattern on the other charts, not the placement of the low. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2023090618&fh=192

Should have handed this idiot an anemometer and asked him to get some data on Lee.

Stop eating at the RU food trucks.

Don't see this too often.

He probably hasn't looked since some models were showing it coming back around to Florida.

4am advisory says 125mph but splitting hairs.

Yeah, down 4mb in last 90 minutes.

Most 0z models including HAFS had Idalia leveling off right about now until landfall. Let see what she does.