strongwxnc

Dude you’ll get nailed! .

Wow. Even cutting back that QPF output is still insane. .

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 240 PM Wed: CAD will take shape across the region Saturday with strong continental high pressure pushing to the Mid-Atlantic Coast under strong upper confluence, just as a well-defined trough (with embedded shortwave) initiates cyclogenesis along the central Gulf Coast. The low subsequently will move across the Southeast Coastal Plain in a Miller A-type configuration. Confidence has increased that with the cold high in place, deep moisture, and strong dynamic/isentropic forcing, a winter storm will affect a large portion of the CWFA at the end of the week. The strength of the high appears likely to keep temps below freezing from early Saturday until early Monday across the mountains/foothills and most of the NC Piedmont. Further south temps are a bit more in question but certainly won`t be warm enough to rule out wintry precip. There has been some disagreement among the various guidance members as to how soon precip gets underway Saturday as the initially stationary front develops between the damming high and the coastal low. Low PoPs have been advertised for this period with temps supportive of a rain/snow mix. That front will develop into the typical wedge warm front Saturday night as the forcing increases rapidly, peaking Sunday. Held close to raw model temp trends Sat night and Sunday. The GFS is faster with onset and also warmer aloft than the EC and Canadian. Even with it being warmer, however, the warm nose is still small/cool enough that it implies limited melting of falling hydrometeors. A fairly large portion of the east-facing Blue Ridge and adjacent Piedmont areas should remain below freezing aloft and therefore will experience mostly if not all snow. The transition to sleet should occur over a narrow region, with sfc temps expected to be warm enough outside the "core" of the CAD airmass for a sharp gradient to rain surrounding the sleet. Sfc temps could very well trend colder given the strength of the CAD, so an expansion of the snow/sleet area is still possible on subsequent fcsts. And of course if warm advection aloft is more effective than currently anticipated, a wider mention of FZRA could return. In terms of amounts, the spectrum of QPF guidance has trended appreciably upward this cycle, as have WPC`s numbers. Our fcst is slightly below the EC ensemble mean at the sampled locations, and even further below the GEFS mean. We are approaching increases in the official fcst QPF cautiously since even modest snow ratios from these values would result in snow/sleet accumulations that might be a once-in-a-generation event for parts of the Piedmont. Sunday night at least a brief lull is expected as the coastal low moves off the Outer Banks. However, the consensus of the global models is now for the aforementioned shortwave to meander thru the area from then through Monday, by which time temps should be colder aloft and the threat of sleet/FZRA should have ended. The shortwave has the potential to generate more snow from lingering moisture, and/or to drive convective snow showers through Monday. By Tuesday morning dry high pressure will spread over the region along with shortwave ridging. Temps will remain below normal, especially so in areas with snow cover.

32/20 for Rutherfordton at the same time! Bring it

Regardless of systems and setup you can draw a line over to Gastonia, Patterson springs, Shelby, souther rutherford county (over just south of HWY 74). The battle is real round here.

Best site for BUFKIT?

Sure do Skip! Good times! So many times the kickers will come in 12-18 hours before hand and totally derail things. EE man. Also, thanks for kicking in the disco man!

last night euro totals. I feel that my area in the foothills is going to fight the warming from 925-850 very hard come game time.

Euro totals from 00z

The SLP is a tad bit slower or further back west at 96 then the 06 GFS run.

So True. The 06Z FV3 is coming in now. Lets see what it produces.

Can you run one for KFQD ? Or link me ? .

Same here. He has grown on me over the last few years. Good dude! .

Straight up gfs run for Jason. He did not show any other models. But same as you, surprised he dropped that tonight. .

That mean is crazy! Wow. .

It sure does.

Slight moves make all the difference here. Snow is adding up as you move west.

421 should be okay as you travel off I77. However, depending not he depth of this storm, the counties 421 runs through might have a time keeping up with the totals that "could" fall. The sooner she gets down the better on Saturday.

I like this quote from the AFD “I stuck close to WPC, but these may be too warm within the heart of the CAD” I’m here in the lee laying in wait... .

That’s look good. So much liquid. Hopefully more frozen then not... .

12 hour rule always in play round here! Until then drink up! .

Got it! Increase as you move west sort of .

Got a link for this? Thanks .

When making statements about certain models, please try to post the link or image you are referring to. That is, if you can post the image legally. This will help folks be able save or bookmark links for models. .