strongwxnc

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Good catch on the new RAP. .

Looks like GSP going with a warmer nose going more North which adds in IP. I feel like we knew this would be the case anyway. One thing is for sure, it looks to start Mid morning Friday for this area. With just over 24 hr out to start, GSP still is giving wiggle room.

NWS GSP Thursday Morning AFDSHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/KEY MESSAGES:1) A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA FROM 7AM FRI THROUGH 7 AM SAT. NO CHANGES/UPGRADES WILL BE MADE TO THEWATCH AT THIS TIME.2) MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT TOWARD MORE WARM AIR ALOFT ANDTHEREFORE MORE MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PART OF THEAREA, AND MORE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY: 00Z GUIDANCE IS LARGELY STICKING TO ITSRESPECTIVE CAMPS, WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER/COLDER/FARTHER SOUTHECMWF, THE QUITE WET AND WARM NAM (WARM AS IN "WARM NOSE"/MORE MIXEDPRECIP AND FREEZING RAIN), AND THE GFS/CANADIAN WHICH REPRESENT MOREOF A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER, THE LATTER TWO GUIDANCE SOURCES SEEM TO BETRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NAM CAMP, WHILE A CONSENSUS OF THE LASTSIX HOURS OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ALSO TEND TO PUSH A WARMNOSE RATHER FAR NORTH INTO THE CWA BY 00Z SATURDAY. AS SUCH, WE'VETRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET DEVELOPING ASFAR NORTH AS THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN THE NC PIEDMONT (AND SOUTHERN TIEROR TWO OF MOUNTAIN ZONES), AS WELL AS A QUICKER TRANSITION TOFREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR FRIAFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ADDS BOTH COMPLEXITY AND MORE UNCERTAINTY TOTHE FORECAST, AS THERE ARE NOW CONCERNS ABOUT SLEET CUTTING INTOSNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST NC AND NORTHEASTGA. THESE ARE THE AREAS WHERE WE HERETOFORE HAVE BEEN MOST CONFIDENTTHAT A) ALL PRECIP WILL FALL AS WINTRY PRECIP AND LIQUIDEQUIVALENT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE ADEQUATE FOR WINTER STORMWARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET (IF THE PRECIP WERE TO ALL FALL AS SNOW),BUT MORE SLEET WOULD PLACE A RATHER LARGE FLY IN THAT OINTMENT.MEANWHILE, CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST ACCUMS REMAINS MODERATE AT MOSTACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DUE TO EITHER CONCERNS ABOUTADEQUATE LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP (MOST OF OUR NC ZONES OUTSIDE THESOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS), CONCERNS ABOUT MIXED PRECIP BEING THE PRIMARYPRECIP TYPE (MUCH OF UPSTATE SC) AND/OR THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEWAREAS MAY SEE A TRANSITION TO PLAIN OLD RAIN BEFORE ANY WARNINGCRITERIA IS REACHED (BECOMING AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY ACROSSPORTIONS OF THE LAKELANDS AND VICINITY). IN FACT, OUR CURRENTOFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT FEATURE WARNING CRITERIA SNOW OR ICEOUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST NC/NORTHEAST GA AREA (WHEREWE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERAL 3-6" TOTALS). HOWEVER, WITH THEINCREASE IN FREEZING RAIN...AND A SWATH OF 0.1"-0.25" ICE ALONG ANDSOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR, WE DO HAVE SOME LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OFI-85 IN THE UPSTATE AND GEORGIA THAT ARE CLOSE TO THE 1/4 INCHTHRESHOLD. ALL THIS IS TO SAY THAT...IN COLLABORATION WITHNEIGHBORING OFFICES, NO UPGRADES OR CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORMWATCH WILL OCCUR ON THIS SHIFT. HAVING SAID THAT, THE POTENTIALSTILL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS, ESPECIALLYACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA...PERHAPS THE GREATEST CONCERNAT THIS POINT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BONAFIDE ICE STORM TOMATERIALIZE FOR A PART OF THE AREA IF GUIDANCE TRENDS FURTHER TOWARDA STRONGER/MORE ADVECTIVE/WETTER SOLUTION.PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AND SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLYSATURDAY, WITH A RESUMPTION OF DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHEREXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM, WITH TEMPERATURESEXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY AND SATNIGHT. IN FACT, SAT NIGHT COULD PROVE TO BE ONE OF THE COLDESTNIGHTS OF THE SEASON OVER ANY LINGERING AREAS OF SNOWPACK.

Icon looking good .

looks more into line with the globals. .

Or another planet. wow for sure.

Looks a touch west of the 18z at the same time

But its the HRRR at the end of its range. So take that for whats its worth.

still drops 2-4' across Rutherford County SE-NW. Around .2-.3 qpf

You think that SL that pushed in will assist in some lee side enhancements? Time frame still has it arriving by 11ish around here.

No doubt. Coming into the SW mountains.

North = warmer That being that far north is new.

already down to 26 tonight. Wow

Im 26 mins west of Shelby so...

Can you post the 12Z? Just for viewing. Nice spread down here though. Lets hug it

@dsaur storm.

I mean , I can see the mountains from my house…. No riff here. Just different micro climates . .

The afternoon discussion left room for positive and negative wiggle .

Our local DOT must have a lot of brine because they have put it all over. Even some secondary roads. .

Latest from gsp https://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/YouTube/brief.pdf .

Sure is. IT has sped up a lot.

Sure is! very nice.

I will take that down here in the southern foothills.

We hug!