strongwxnc

Woof. All I have to say right now.

100% yes. The movement north is not a big concern like stated. it will be the upper level warmth base on strength of the LP moving through. Lots to be ironed out for sure.

Options on the table: AFD 6:22 GSP Key message 4: A potential winter storm system could affect the area this weekend but details remain highly uncertain. The bigger story for the forecast continues to be the potential for a winter storm to sweep across a wide swath of the south, from the central CONUS to the Carolinas. What we know at this point is a signal in model guidance has pointed to a strong continental polar (cP) air mass spilling into the central portion of the U.S. and spreading eastward. Meanwhile, moisture appears to stretch over the south and southeast ahead of the frontal boundary. Somewhere along this frontal boundary, wintry precipitation will likely form. Now, this is where the uncertainty comes into play as there are many factors that will change and directly influence this system for our area. The primary factor being the location of the transition zone from snow to a wintry mix, involving sleet and ice. Current model guidance from the GFS has shifted the transition zone further north, bringing the potential for more of an ice event than snow. The EURO keeps the snow as the primary p-type. Many of the GEFS members show a mix of ice and snow. The main point is that yes, the model guidance is signaling for a potential winter storm stretching over the weekend. There is also the possibility for the area of high pressure to extend further south, which also could cutoff precipitation chances entirely. It`s a low chance, but still in the realm if possibilities. But, despite these forecast tools, there is still much uncertainty to where the transition zone sets up, which directly impacts how much snow vs ice vs nothing there could be. Another factor increasing confidence in this potential winter storm is the cold air that is expected to be in place. Unlike systems recently where there was a chance for snow, the environment lacked the cold air required for any wintry precip to develop. This is looking to not be the case for this potential event. Currently, the NBM has increased probabilities of accumulations that could bring about warnings for snow (40%) and ice (35%). So, overall, there is a strong signal for a possible winter storm that could impact the area over the weekend, but details on snow/ice/sleet remain unclear this far out.

My clocks bangs at 4:10am for work. Sleep is a must. Still in the face of great trends and stability today still just along for the ride. Get me to Thursday please. LOL Also @BooneWX that is a crazy out look you posted from GSP. Good Lawd!

Yes the 18 z Euro starts its off on Friday in NC!

Yes it is!

Lord…. .

Mobile today so can’t look. Someone post it. .

16 here as well. .

low of 16.2. No rain in the bucket from yesterday.

One thing is for sure, this system should have lots of moisture and cold air to work with. The levels of cold air are a different story. As seen in this FR map.

Bottom out at 18 this morning. Lots of data to take in from the overnight runs. As time moves on the battle lines will become more clear on the impacts at the end of the week.

I will go with 12 hours before the storm.

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Underground forecast has updated since the 12z runs for MBY. lol .

Just the digital snow for now. It will change . But it sure is nice! .

Depends on the timing of the cold push. In place cold vs cold with front .

Sure does. Strung out over a few days also. [emoji102] .

I agree. My salt intake has increased when reading what he puts out.

Got to love rates like that! Enjoy

Looking for some sky candy today nothing much. But the echos coming out of the upstate look to be filling in nicely. Next weekend continues to look good also !

37.9 with echos heading in shortly.

47 here with a DP of 34.9 .

Hopium can be the best of things. .

Great items to watch as the day unfolds. .