strongwxnc

Straight GAs here . The GSP AFD is a great read today. Love ratio SLR talk

what does the bolded mean? Found in the latest GSP AFD Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate incredibly cold profiles with a deep dendritic growth zone and plenty of forcing in part from strong DPVA with the upper low.

Trying to figure out it is bombs off the coast IMO. Again, waling the line with Lower (but great totals) down this way. Looks good to me. That min has been showing up though as stated down here.

[emoji1634] .

Good call. Also never get to high when the colors are pretty. Makes the burn ever so hard. 12 hour rule is alway in effect.

Exactly and this is what to look for going forward around our Back yards.

Boom ! .

Not to strong also. It is does Bomb out it will pull. Need to walk the line for flow before. This is if it bombs out.

Fact is we are always one step away from the cliff.

For MBY only, I will bet the streak until it is over. But Im trying real hard Ringo..

I was at APP when then happened and did not get to experience on the home land. Boone got the shaft with that one If I recall. But yes, as of now anything is possible. Im issuing a 12 hr excitement ban for myself. Hopes do not increase til 12 hours before onset. Just enjoy the digital flakes for now

Want a band swath instead of banding to come in, if it comes in. we get the right flow as it moves (for mby yard is it SSW -> NNE then pivots to EEN - > SWW. Boom

SO67 VRB02KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0/0200Z 68 VRB02KT 31.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 260131/0300Z 69 VRB02KT 30.8F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 260131/0400Z 70 03003KT 31.0F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0 260131/0500Z 71 03003KT 30.6F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 260131/0600Z 72 03004KT 30.3F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 10:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 260131/0700Z 73 03005KT 29.6F SNOW 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 10:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0 260131/0800Z 74 04005KT 28.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 10:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 100| 0| 0 260131/0900Z 75 04006KT 27.8F SNOW 16:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 100| 0| 0 260131/1000Z 76 05006KT 26.7F SNOW 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 11:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 100| 0| 0 260131/1100Z 77 05006KT 26.3F SNOW 15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 12:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0 260131/1200Z 78 04006KT 26.0F SNOW 14:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 12:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 260131/1300Z 79 04007KT 25.4F SNOW 14:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 12:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0 260131/1400Z 80 04008KT 25.6F SNOW 13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 12:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 100| 0| 0 260131/1500Z 81 04009KT 26.0F SNOW 16:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 13:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21 100| 0| 0 260131/1600Z 82 05009KT 25.8F SNOW 19:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 13:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0 260131/1700Z 83 05010KT 25.4F SNOW 21:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 14:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 100| 0| 0 260131/1800Z 84 04011KT 24.9F SNOW 25:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 16:1| 5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.32 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 260131/1900Z 85 05010KT 24.7F SNOW 26:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 17:1| 6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0 260131/2000Z 86 05010KT 24.7F SNOW 24:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038 17:1| 6.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0 260131/2100Z 87 05009KT 24.5F SNOW 24:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 18:1| 7.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 100| 0| 0 260131/2200Z 88 04007KT 24.5F SNOW 25:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 18:1| 8.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 100| 0| 0 260131/2300Z 89 35010KT 23.3F SNOW 29:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 19:1| 10.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0 260201/0000Z 90 33011KT 19.7F SNOW 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 19:1| 10.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53 100| 0| 0 Some high ratio showing up for KHKY on the 06GFS.

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 627 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 Key message 3: Confidence is increasing that a significant winter weather event will impact at least a portion of the forecast area from Friday night through Saturday, with snow expected to be the primary precipitation type. Due to cold temperatures leading up to the event, impacts to travel could be significant. An intense short wave trough/evolving upper low is forecast to dig from the Corn Belt at the start of the period, to the Tenn Valley by Sat afternoon before the center of the upper low passes over, or just south of our CWA late Saturday...becoming increasingly negatively tilted w/ strong downstream diffluence as time passes. The timing of the development of this diffluence will be key in determining the placement and timing of cyclogenesis near the Southeast Coast Fri night/Saturday and associated sensible weather impacts for our forecast area. What is becoming clear is that surface development will occur close enough to the coast to allow frontogenetically-forced moisture and lift to impact at least the eastern half of the CWA Fri night into Saturday. PoPs have been increased to likely in these areas by Saturday morning...with at least solid chances across the western half. In terms of the precip type, temperatures may borderline at the RA/SN boundary for some areas at the beginning of the event, but all locations should quickly transition to snow as cold advection intensifies on the west side of the developing cyclone. In terms of QPF, the general consensus among deterministic and ensemble guidance is in the 0.25-0.5" range for much of the area, with the higher end of that range being more probable along/east of the I-77 corridor. However, with forecast profiles quickly cooling to well-below freezing through a deep layer, and surface temps that are expected to linger in the 20s, snow ratios look to be higher than the textbook 10:1 rule of thumb with this event, with snow ratio guidance from the National Blend of Models suggesting ratios of 15-20:1 are very possible. Based upon the latest NBM probabilistic guidance...which is largely supported by the individual ensemble systems of the ECMWF/Canadian/GFS, much of the forecast area will likely see at least Advisory-level snowfall, with solid chances for Warning-level snow of 3" or over areas roughly east of I-26. Much of this event is beyond the short term...and so some degree of deterministic run-to-run model shenanigans are to be expected over the next 24 hours or so, with single model runs depicting jogs to the east (less snow) or to the west (more snow) to be expected, but the key point is that at least Winter Weather Advisory-level snowfall now appears likely across all but the western quarter of the CWA by the end of Saturday.