EastCoast NPZ

16 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z 12K NAM, another midweek drought denting soaker incoming.  

I hope so.  I sure would love for this to be accurate for out here and not underperform as the last two events did.

It remains snowless, another Christmas in shorts and t-shirts, and another Cowboys debacle late season collapse.  About as bad a Christmas Eve as can be.

But, hope everyone has a safe and Merry Christmas.  

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I start Chapter 33 today: Thankful for another year! And another chance to get it right, lol 32 was rocky...esepcially professionally/emotionally. Yet somehow...said rockiness could serve to cultivate my growth for the future. Here's to being better at age 33!

Merry Christmas everyone!

Happy Birthday!

Listen, we get it.  February is usually our snowiest month, especially in a Nino.  But it shouldn't be the only month. 

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Anyone who doesnt needs to start paying better attention to their own backyard. All of us have felt the changes. I still think we end up above normal this season. Simply because I think we end up with at least one bomb. But what is the "new" snow normal going to be in 25 years?

1/3 of MET winter is gone and I don't have even a dusting to show for it.  Add to that this location received 5" the last 2 years combined.   I know what that normal already is.

12 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Surprised to see most of the central and southern Apps as dry as it is:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ChangeMaps.aspx (just need to select calendar year)

Maryland now only has Class 1 drought conditions.

Life in the Fringed Zone.

18 minutes ago, Jebman said:

If that happens it's going to get pretty  cold even in Austin.

And dry.

3 hours ago, stormy said:

Much of the Valley is still in severe drought.

 

We need our 3" rain storm.  And more than one of them.

16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

those aren't of much use... they're 5 day means that start on the 27th, which includes the torch ahead of the cutter. that warm surge has trended stronger

the overall 500mb pattern change is still moving forward in time. also, you need the 500mb change before any snow can result. don't wanna put the cart before the horse

I feel shocked, Cotton.

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Isn't the CMC the #2 model after the euro as far as verification scores?  I mean they are all useless at 240 hrs, but doesn't seem like there's any reason to discount the CMC vs the GFS.

I dont know.  But I'd trust CMC - as in Christian McCaffrey- for a weather simulation over the CMC.

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

notice how nobody mentioned the CMC

That's because it's the CMC.  Lol.

29 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Just looking at the next 10-11 days, looks too warm for snow.  WB 18Z GEFS.  Maybe it will look different by the end of this week.  H5 maps may look perfect but it still has to be 32 or below.  I am not being pessimistic about winter, just suggest people look for some cold air being established first, then look for shortwaves.

Lots of cold in Mexico.  The southern stream system should be able to tap into that.

Just like last week, another underperformer out here.  Forecasted 2 - 3 got me 1.31".  I forgot how much I disliked these coastal systems where we get 1/2 the precip of the rest of you.

1.16" 

Unless there is some sort of pivot to get precip on a more westerly track, the show is going to be over pretty soon for us out here.  That's an impressive fetch headed north towards DC.

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I’m surprised at some of the meager rainfall reports. Feels like it’s been pouring for f’ing HOURS.

Low ratios

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO, dreaming of a white Christmas Eve?

With a bullseye imby.  Lol.

Well, it did happen in 2012.

8 hours ago, 87storms said:

So how’s spring training and the cherry blossoms looking?

Cherry blossoms peak on track for Christmas. 

2 hours ago, 87storms said:

The fun part is days start getting longer in less than 2 weeks.

Ugh

I'm good if the rain materializes.  I know that snow exists only in memory in my area.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1735025491352912155?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw
 

his troll game is A+

Warm and dry is far worse than rainy and cold IMO.  I've got 9 months of warm/hot and dry.  Gladly take cold and rain.

Management better make sure there's extra towels and toiletries.

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're kicking the can through 50% of winter. Shocker.

Hopefully, we can sneak in another car-topper in March, right before the first string of 80s.

10 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Really? Are you being serious?

Yep.  I mean, snow fell for a time, but nothing heavy enough to accumulate anywhere.  Complete white rain.  Even the rain was whimpy; we only got .9"  

As Yukon Cornelius would say, "nuthin."

Flipped back to light snow.  As usual here, lack of rates.