John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The 06 wasn't terrible for 40 and north, but I saw that the AI is colder/flatter than it had been. It's getting into the range where it's basically taken all the other operational models to school, all winter. It's the top verification model at 500mb and for 850 temps the last year plus now.
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The Canadian is similar to the GFS, second wave with a nice snow event. Not quite as heavy as the GFS. Lots of possibilities still on the table, rain is probably the most likely solution but hopefully the snowy solutions work out for us.
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The ICON and GFS are back on board with a snow event. The GFS later than the ICON. It did shift south overall.
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Not much good on the overnight models. GFS was an insult to injury run. We miss being too far south then we miss by being too far north.
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18z AI was a shift south, 10+ 40 and south. 8-10 north of 40, 6-8 around the Kentucky/VA border areas. Colder and more suppressed continues on it. Direct opposite of the GFS amped and warmer outcome.
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12z AI was an absolute nuke for some of us. Heavy rain to heavy wet snow.
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The OP was worse, the EPS was better in terms of snowfall potential across the forum area.
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The Euro missed a little north that run, but I was honestly worried it was going to be too suppressed. The AI was pretty suppressed each run so far. The Euro has additional waves of winter weather loaded. Hopefully we can get round one in the chamber and actually have it work out for us, it will affect the future potential if there's a good snowpack.
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Rd 1 on the Euro. We'll see if there's a round 2. There was on the GFS.
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GFS came back south vs 18z. Canadian is a big hitter further south than the GFS. The 40 corridor battle zone effect seems to always be a thing.
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The southern edge "lighter" snow totals will also have some freezing rain/sleet.
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That's an all-time Winter Storm for Kentucky and a good portion of Tennessee. 14-24 inches for the Northern half of the forum west of the Plateau. I only manage 11 inches before 1.5 inches of freezing rain falls on top of it. (Round 1)
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Not sure what it is about Valentine's Day, but +/- 2 days on either side of it has many many many historic winter storms.
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Epic GFS run inbound for the parts of the forum, especially 40 and n.
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The models are looking second half of February 2015ish right now. But the epic cold is looming to our NW and doesn't quite get all the way here.
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Ends as freezing rain.
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The Euro is beautiful.
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The GFS throws 8-10 inches of QPF over the area and in some places, nearly half of that is frozen of some form or another.
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Severe winter storm for a lot of the forum area on this GFS run. Epic freezing rain in my area. Heavy snow western areas and Kentucky. Insane with 2.5+ inches of freezing rain Plateau, SE Kentucky and SW Virginia. 2 feet of snow in Eastern Kentucky. The model maxes out at 2.5 inches of freezing rain but it appears that 3+ qpf falls. It's inside 10 days when it starts now. The boundary stalls and floods, then creeps south and give the incredible ice totals. Then it loads up and does it again. 8-12 inches of snow in Western areas.
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The 18z GFS is ridiculous for areas just north of the Ohio River. 3-4 feet of snow.
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We are on the edge of glory or heartbreak. We either watch the Ohio river get buried while we get soaked, or we get waves of winter weather. Models aren't quite sure yet just how much se ridge we get.
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The Euro gave it ago north of 40 across the whole area basically.
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Heck of a storm blew through a few minutes ago. Approaching 3 inches of rain from this.
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Nearly 2 inches of rain and currently pouring down in buckets. Where was this when it was cold? It's still crazy to me that Florida, South Alabama and south Louisiana managed to get double digit snowfall totals and bilzzard conditions while we were mostly high and dry.
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Another major temp bust today. Low was predicted to be 32, it was 24. High was predicted to be in the 50s, it was 39 so far.
