John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Precip is running way later than forecast. It was supposed to rain heavily here tonight, and I don't think anything makes it until daybreak. It is down to 35 degrees.
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The UK 10:1 and ratio'd map aren't a ton different. It's the warmest of all the guidance from what I can gather.
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GFS is a "meh" for the east, good for the Northern half of the western forum. The Canadian is a monster. The ICON somewhere in-between.
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It's hard to ask for a better track than the GFS throws out at 18z. That track should have a bigger and better precip shield. I assume it transfers or something and falls apart like the January system kept getting modeled to do.
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The Euro was similar to 00z but less precip overall. Colder with high ratios. Way way way colder than the UK.
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The Euro was like a slightly weaker version of the Canadian. Eastern areas get the most. 1-3 west of the Plateau. 4-8+ across much of the east. The UKIE is similar in the East with heavier snow in the western areas. Won't be surprised if it's entirely different tomorrow.
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UKIE is a pretty significant winter storm for the region. If this slips under 120 hours (it's close now) it's probably close to thread starting time.
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The GFS/ICON/Canadian all still have the snow event. The Canadian is a monster after being not so good earlier. The GFS is improved and the ICON was a bit as well.
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Modeling is still moving around with the potential snow next week. The GFS has been back and forth with a monster. The others are lighter events. They're pretty much showing everything from a forum wide event to a west only or east only event. Hopefully we can reel it to within 48 hours.
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Moderate rain ongoing. 1.04 inches today so far. Just over 3 inches since yesterday.
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25 was the OP last night.
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12z modeling still has the snow event. The ICON better than the GFS for more of us. The GFS has a rain to heavy snow set up. The Canadian isn't out to there yet but looks like it's about to give it ago.
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ICON and Canadian also have the storm. Not as crazy as the GFS obviously.
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15 to 20 inches for the Eastern half of the state there. The GFS has some wild super snow events modeled this year and I don't think a single one has happened to the extent it showed at this range.
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Huge event on the gfs. I don't trust it, but it would be incredible to see.
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2.1 inches here so far and still pouring.
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Close to 2 inches here at 38 degrees. Miserable.
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Obviously with how this winter has gone, they can't be trusted, but the Euro and GFS just dumped on the western half of the forum area.
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Precip has arrived as snow and sleet mixed. Probably have a few minutes of mixed before going to rain.
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It's 37 degrees here with the precip still South and West of me.
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In Chattanooga for the Super Bowl. Looks like it's 35 back home and there's been some rain and snow mixed moving across.
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I was in Anderson County at a basketball tournament. They evacuated the gym. That's twice in the last three years that's happened to me. We had to evacuate at Powell during a tournament there in 2023. The storm was just heavy rain and a lot of lighting in the area I was in, not even any wind. But I left ahead of the tornado arrival time if it didn't fall apart.
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Not as far south as yesterday at 12z but a definite shift south from 06z. Classic 40 battle line.
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As is fairly typical at this range, the Euro is hanging back in the SW and pumping up the SE ridge. Which is why it's probably the furthest N of models currently.
