John1122

Power finally came back on. RGEM still looks solid.

It's wild how we used to have a Miller A system nearly every year and the last few years we can't buy anything but hand-off systems unless it's too warm to snow. Hopefully we see some better trends in the next 36 hours, instead of worse trends.

Major flooding here and no power since around 3am as the storms moved in. Many roads cut in half, driveways gone. Trees down everywhere.

Snowing here for the past hour. Power has been out since early this morning. Roads are washed away and the NAM pulls that crap. Hopefully it's just being a screwball.

The ICON and GFS went up on totals at 6z, and because we can't have simple, nice things anymore when it comes to winter weather, the Euro went down.

The Euro was a double bad draw for the areas in the Central Valley of East Tennessee and NE. It shoots a big warm nose up the middle of the valley with mid to upper 30s, and it cut QPF for the same area of the warm nose. It was about .15 to .25 less qpf vs 12z. The EPS is still a little wetter than the OP. But it's getting close to the time where the OP will likely handle things better. As I said, hopefully this is not a trend and we get a little more QPF to work with. It's pretty sad that we get 7 inches of rain in 4 days when it's warm, but can't be .5 when it's cold enough to snow.

Euro backed off with QPF, unfortunately. Still a ways to go, but hopefully not a trend. Most modeling backed off a bit tonight for Tennessee and upped totals in NC.

Canadian crept south a bit and now has the entire state over an inch, when 12z blanked some of the southern border areas.

GFS was fairly similar to 18z. Little heavier out west, a little lighter in the eastern valley after what looked like a promising start. Likely doing the hand-off thing Carvers talked about JB saying it does at times.

The temp has went up from 39 to 56 since 5pm. Heavy mist/drizzle going on out there. If that next line of storms/rain doesn't weaken, we're probably looking at some potentially life-threatening flooding for folks.

The NBM for the 12z suite would see a Winter Storm Watch criteria for SW Va, SE KY and areas along the Tennessee/Kentucky/VA border, dropping down towards 40 in the Mid-State and points West.

The NAM is amped (of course) and has the rain up to 40. The ICON was another good pass/run. The RGEM looks like it was going to be similar to the ICON/EURO etc.

TNC005-017-079-183-160230- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250216T0230Z/ Weakley TN-Benton TN-Carroll TN-Henry TN- 757 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN WEAKLEY...NORTHERN BENTON...NORTHERN CARROLL AND HENRY COUNTIES... At 757 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Paris Landing State Park, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Paris, McKenzie, Huntingdon, Paris Landing State Park, Dresden, Gleason, Atwood, Cottage Grove, Routon, Vale, Springville, Trezevant, Puryear, Big Sandy, Henry, McLemoresville, Sandhill, Mansfield, Old Springville, and Como. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3595 8865 3601 8870 3606 8869 3618 8873 3636 8853 3650 8834 3650 8806 3647 8805 3644 8806 3635 8798 3627 8794 3622 8795 3621 8794 TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 238DEG 44KT 3640 8812 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Memphis TN 749 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Henderson County in west Tennessee... Southeastern Gibson County in west Tennessee... Northwestern Hardeman County in west Tennessee... Southwestern Carroll County in west Tennessee... Southeastern Haywood County in west Tennessee... Madison County in west Tennessee... * Until 830 PM CST. * At 749 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Mercer, or 10 miles southwest of Jackson, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Jackson, Humboldt, Lexington, Fairview, Three Way, Bemis, Blue Goose, Bargerton, Mercer, Parkers Crossroads, Carroll, Medina, Hickory Flat, Neely, Cedar Grove, Huntersville, Beech Bluff, Westover, Madison Hall, and Uptonville.

18z Euro was another nice hit from Kentucky down to Northern Bama. Nice EPS too. As good as the 12z.

Around my area this afternoon. If we get poured on again tonight, some really dangerous situations may develop in the dark.

The ICON was similar to the Euro.

Each model is basically a little colder and a little heavier on the snow output than the runs from 00z.

It thundered a lot here this morning at 37 degrees. I hope there's no severe.

The fire hose finally turned off here. The creeks around my house are probably in the top 5 or 6 that I've seen them. If it had rained another couple of hours we probably move into the top 3.

It's looking pretty good right now, but it's never a given here until we see the flakes falling. We are due for one that doesn't go south or north.

Flooding pretty wide spread here. A lot of thunder today with temps in the 30s. Not common. Heavy rain ongoing with 2.24 inches down so far today.

This EPS run may be as good as any we see for this system. Add an inch for ratio's north of 40 especially.

The UKIE (which is normally the warmest model) had mixing/warm nose issues for the far eastern areas and a lot of sleet, but still put down a lot of snow from 75 west basically.