John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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In the Tennessee area of this, the Euro was only showing around 2 inches total.
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The EURO had St Louis with 1.1 inches by 7pm. Did they have 2 or 3 inches by noon?
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Soon as the sun dropped behind the mountain the temp dropped. Hopefully my last moments above freezing until Saturday.
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Yes, I agree. And one or two bad models can really skew the mean in both directions.
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I'm sure it's whatever the latest NBM is. They basically seem to never use anything but it. It's pretty much an ensemble mean it seems.
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Peak temp today.
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The 18z GFS gives me 6 inches. The 18z ICON and RGEM give me 5 inches. The NAM had been giving 5 inches here but now it's down to 3 inches. The 3K paints 4+ all along Cross Mountain but areas to the immediate east get downsloped I assume, and get 2 inches. Because there are 0 temp issues imby on any model. I am in the lower to mid 20s the entire event.
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They decreased totals for my area it appears.
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Most models have the entire forum area except for some parts of NE Alabama, below freezing by tomorrow morning when the HRRR is showing a large area of 33f.
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Some of the hi-res models over-emphasize terrain in East Tennessee. The NAM/RGEM are usually pretty good with thermals at close range. So is the Euro.
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OHX is going for 6+ in some of their CWA. 2-5 elsewhere.
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I'm at 22f on the HRRR at 8am. 33 is right up the valley areas. The foothills are subfreezing. If they warm nose it's beyond the HRRRs range.
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The HRRR has a stubborn surface warmnose up the Eastern Valley. It basically runs along 40. South Knox is 33, north Knox 30ish.
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Start time did move up considerably, I was 6 to 8 am and now it says 3 to 5 am.
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Actually looks like they did that this morning and I hadn't noticed. I guess they are not going with the Euro.
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JKL upgraded their advisory counties to a Winter Storm Warning.
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The way it goes here, whatever model that shows the least is likely to nail it.
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I don't know, but it looks like the GFS is also running behind on totals in similar fashion in that area. The Euro gives Joplin area around 7 inches total. NWS is forecasting up to 14 inches there currently.
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To add to what I said above, the RGEM has Joplin with 4 inches at 1:00pm est and it's going to be correct or slightly under by the look of things.
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I will say this on obs and it may not mean anything on the downstream effect. Areas of Missouri that reported an inch on the ground at 10:30 their time, 11:30 est, are shown on the 12z Euro as being under an inch at 1:00pm est. Joplin Missouri has gotten 4 inches from what I can tell and currently has heavy snow and 11. Per the 12z Euro they should be at .9 inches as of 1pm.
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The EURO, which still won't shock me at all if it's right, unfortunately, is one of the big factors in the NBM being so low. It's a desert again. The UKIE is also very dry.
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I'm actually in the 3-4 inches but that blank area is the Cross Mountain downslope area it always overdoes by a mile. That area of CC is the high ridges around Norris Lake.
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GFS really buries the Plateau west and went up for everyone except Chattanooga from 18z.
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We used to get those a couple times a decade but they've faded since the 1990s. Not crossed 15 inches for an event in the 2000s. Did it three times in the 90s alone.
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RGEM basically maintains what it has for the last two days. Really nice hit for West Tennessee and then the Northern Plateau and NE TN and points north. Around 3 inches along 40 from Nashville to Knoxville.
