John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Sad to see all these runs of a storm getting sheared out like the 12z Euro. But I guess quite literally everything is on the table still, as models are showing every possibility from run to run.
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UKIE is suppressed after being close to perfect at 0z. It's going to be a hard week of model runs unless they can by some miracle get a clearer picture of the different bits of energy.
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Incredibly tough to model situation as little pieces of energy fly around, each model run seems to handle them with a small difference. That makes a big difference in the final outcome. The Canadian seems to be playing catch up, as it has often shown what the other models were showing the day before. It's slower and more amped and would be a major ice/sleet storm for us. Hopefully it's not correct.
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The precip is about to lift out of here soon. I expect when it does, I may go above freezing.
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Extremely icy now as freezing rain is predominant with some sleet mixed. Temp has went down 1.6 degrees with a stiff ne wind gust on occasion. Looks like the rgem is winning here as well. The NAM showed very little ice here at all, as did the hrrr. I've already exceeded what they showed.
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The ICON shifted way north and nailed Tennessee. The 06z GFS ended up building a glacier late run after the next weekend storm passed (oddly except for all of Knox County) so the pattern may be loaded or the GFS may just be loaded.
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Now getting huge sleet chunks. Probably about to go to zr. These things are 1/8th in across.
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Switching back and forth between sleet and snow still. No freezing rain as yet.
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Ground is white as are vehicles here but flake size went from quarters to small icy flakes, about to go full sleet. I doubt it gets back to snow at all.
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I went back to all snow after some sleet mix for a bit.
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Temperature dropped to 28 with moderate snow. It's not likely to last too long, there's a few sleet pellets mixed in.
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Snowing here. 30 degrees, dp 16.
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Euro is a board wide hit but has some warm nosing up to about Knoxville in the East as the storm turns into an Apps runner. Big totals west side of 6+, 4-5 Plateau, 2-4 eastern areas.
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Canadian stays in camp suppression and then fires up another piece of energy after this storm passes and gives us some snow. Not interested in can kicking, but several models have the second potential snow even now.
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Clouds just keep regenerating overhead here. Holding at 28.
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Another solution completely. The southern energy gets left behind and this is entirely from NS energy diving down into the gulf. At this point I'm going to hope the Euro AI is correct. It nailed the current system from 156 out and didn't change much. The Euro AI is a board wide weak slider that drops 4-8 inches forum wide.
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I was 26, it clouded up from the NW and warmed up to 28. There should be some clearing overnight before clouds return around 4 or 5 am.
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0z Suite pt 1 ICON super suppressed. Ice on the gulf coast. After the system misses to the SE, it tries to gin up a couple of inches in East Tennessee as a back side pulse drops into the area.
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Does anyone else notice that Pivotal sometimes doesn't show snow on their maps but when you look at accumulation it's showing that it fell? I had sort of noticed it earlier this year and the Scottie mentioned the NAM showing nice wraparound and I looked at Pivotal and it's not showing any snow falling during any period. (Other sites do show it) However, when you click on 6hr accumulation for instantance, it shows snow has fallen in the areas where it's showing nothing but other sites are showing snow.
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HRRR has a couple hours of snow here to start then precip backs off, then some light freezing rain or drizzle for a bit.
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It used to be, that when it snowed in North Texas, we would be cashing in soon after. Alberta Clippers gave 2-4 inches, and when Margie Ison said "Siberian express" we were going to get 2+ inches and temps below 0 were coming. All those things happened almost every single winter when I was young.
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The 18z Euro was slower than then 12z. Looked like West Tennessee was still fine, but not sure where it may have gone for the East areas. It sped up on the GFS and made the east in the day time. Likely would be overnight on the Euro. Granted, it's a transfer issue less than a temperature issue for the east. It just gives up the ghost on the gfs and there's no dynamic cooling, which means freezing rain and drizzle on the GFS.
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This may be it for winter. Once these patterns break down, historically. That's basically it for winter. February usually is well AN.
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Not gonna lie, if this ends up a cutter, I'm probably checking out for winter from model watching.
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Great run for the west side. Crap show for the east side. Apparently morphs into a cutter.
