John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Ratio'd AI map. From Bouncycorn the Met who has his own model extraction/blending software. Hard to see, but that's 5 inches in 90 percent of the forum area with 6 and 7 inch totals in the darker blues.
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It's apparently been quite a bit better over the last several months and nailed the storm that just past 7 days out.
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That's basically all snow in our forum footprint too.
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18z Euro AI upped totals again. Now 4-6 inches basically forum wide, 6+ around the southern border. That is 10:1. North of 40 likely has better ratios.
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Steady snow here, closing in on a very fluffy inch.
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It still weakens as it heads East but it made it further that time. It's 4 run trend is quite a dramatic increase in QPF.
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Ratio'd Euro.
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The Euro had a better precip shield again at 18z. Still weakens as it moves East but made it further that time.
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The Euro AI has been locked on since day 7, it may or may not be right but it's consistent.
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The snow has now turned steady with dime sized flakes. Roads and all are covered here now.
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I've been down in town a few hours, it's snowing hard here and the ground is white. My neighbor just sent this from on the mountain.
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Snowing quite hard now and nothing showing up on radar. Temp has fallen to 28.
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The EPS mean increased board wide vs 0z. Small trend but at least in a good direction.
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It wasn't huge, but I have gone from .15 qpf to .22 since last night. A few more bumps like that and we might be talking 3 inches.
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That's at least a better run of the Euro. When the UKIE improved a bit, I expected it would as well.
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The UKIE was better for the east and worse for the west that run. It's been slowing trending north the last couple of days and the Euro has pretty closely mirrored it.
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Nickel sized flakes falling. I didn't get nearly as warm as predicted (forecast high was 47, only made 38), so the ground still has a layer of ice on it from the freezing rain and sleet.
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Snow mean is nice board wide on the GEFS.
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Deepening low over midlands of South Carolina and it can't generate any qpf on the NW side so far.
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This one is falling apart faster than a Yugo for the eastern areas.
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We'll see which works, but the ICON-eps ensembles have about 2x mean precip than the total precip of the OP run.
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Because we can't have nice things, the Euro is still falling apart with this, and that was just about it's worst run of all. It falls on it's face after coming out of East Texas and slowly shears out and dies. One thing you can say, no model is going to really win this, because all of them are all over the place with this potential event. I'd settle for the ICON, which is about down the middle of the UKIE/Euro vs Canadian/GFS.
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The 0z 3k hi-res NAM is giving the Plateau area a couple of inches on the backside.
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Euro is stuck at 18 hrs.
